Weather: India may have normal monsoon rains this year, says Skymet
Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: Nearly two months ahead of the onset of rainy season, a private weather forecaster has predicted that India is likely to receive normal monsoon this year, giving respite to both the people, and the farmers—besides the government currently engaged in the Lok Sabha election.
According to Skymet, monsoon rains are expected to be 102 percent of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm (86.86 cm) from June to September 2024, with a model error of plus and minus five percent.
The nationwide LPA for these four months is around 870 mm (87 cm). Cumulative monsoon rains nationwide between 96-104 percent of LPA are considered as ‘normal.’
Officially, the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) will release its first rain forecast for the 2024 southwest monsoon season in the coming weeks.
In its earlier forecast also, released on January 12, 2024, Skymet assessed the monsoon 2024 to be ‘normal.’
“El Nino is swiftly flipping over to La Nina. And, monsoon circulation tends to be stronger during La Nina years. Also, the transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon.
“However, monsoon season may start with a risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino. The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phase,” said Jatin Singh, Managing Director of Skymet, citing weather patterns that shape the seasonal rains each year.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another factor influencing the southwest monsoon in India, is also expected to remain positive this year.
“A preliminary forecast of positive IOD this season will work in tandem with La Nina for better monsoon prospects. Also, the rainfall distribution is likely to be diverse and equitable for the season as a whole,” Skymet said.
Skymet said it expects sufficiently good rains in the South, West, and Northwest India. Core monsoon rainfed zones of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will also receive adequate rainfall.
The eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal may get deficit rainfall during peak monsoon months of July and August. Northeast India is likely to observe less than normal rains during the first half of the season.
There is a 45 percent chance of cumulative national monsoon rainfall in June being normal and a 25 percent chance of it being below normal or deficient, the forecaster said.
June gets around 16.53 cm of rainfall out of the total 87 cm, while in July, Skymet predicted, there is a 60 percent chance of the southwest monsoon being normal. July gets around 28 cm of rainfall.
August has a chance of having a 50 percent normal southwest monsoon and a 20 percent chance above normal. August gets 25.4 cm of rainfall. July and August are the times when India gets the most rainfall during the southwest monsoon.
In September, there is a 60 percent chance of the southwest monsoon being normal in 2024 while 20 percent chance of it being above normal. September gets around 16.7 cm of total monsoon rainfall, Skymet said.
