Roving Periscope: Russia postures to re-annex Ukraine, Belarus
Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: In the Ukraine matter, Russia is posturing to turn the clock back to drum up domestic support and nationalist fervor for Vladimir Putin who, like his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, is allegedly plotting to remain President-for-Life.
To attain this aim, fierce propaganda is a better option than going to war. In the 21st century’s geopolitics, everybody knows that war is expensive foolhardiness and backfires on the perpetrator. Just look at America: after sinking USD 950 billion in Afghanistan between 2001 and 2021, it returned with tail firmly tucked in hind legs.
But Putin is trying to whip up domestic support by reminding the Russians of what happened a century ago: expanding Russia’s borders. When the October Revolution (1917) dethroned the Romanov Dynasty in Russia, Moscow exported Communism and annexed adjoining countries. By 1991, when the Soviet Union disintegrated, it had 15 “republics”, including Ukraine and Belarus (Byelorussia). But that was in the 20th century.
Ever since global geopolitics has undergone a complete transformation. But the old drama is being rehashed. In 2022, President Vladimir Putin is posturing to take the path shown in 1917 by Vladimir Lenin—minus Communism—by re-annexing the first two of the independent countries, Ukraine and Belarus, which both share the Russian language with Russia.
In other words, Putin may try to revive a Soviet Union-type confederation of annexed nations under Moscow’s umbrella and restore its ‘glory’ as a superpower. If it succeeds in its Ukraine and Belarus projects, its next move could be to recapture other former Soviet republics.
Or so it seems. But this has brought Moscow to the brink of a ‘world war’, as some fear, given Moscow had annexed the Crimean Peninsula, an autonomous region of Ukraine, in 2014, as a warning to its breakaway former Soviet republic to desist from joining NATO.
It may, however, be far-fetched, more of a pressure tactic by flexing muscles and fierce propaganda, to achieve strategic ends-without-war. In this era, no country can afford to go to a full-fledged war with any other country. The reason is that the global economy is so networked, integrated, and interdependent that repercussions of any disruption could force the war-monger country into harakiri. If the 19th century marked a balance of power, and the 20th century was an age of balance of terror, then the 21st century is an era of the balance of fear.
In this scenario, all major countries are arming up to teeth, with no war to fight.
That explains why, despite flexing a few muscles in East Ladakh, Bhutan, and Arunachal Pradesh against India, China could not escalate it beyond a point. Its ‘psychological warfare’ and threats against all and sundry on matters like Hong Kong, South China Sea, and Taiwan continued to hit headlines with the same purpose. Propaganda and terrorism are low-cost wars that last longer.
America, NATO, and other power centers understand these mind games. They all play the same game, using posturing, threats, and, as a last resort, sanctions. Stockpiling of traditional and nuclear weapons means little in this geopolitical brinkmanship: they know their adversaries have similar or even deadlier weapons and war could become a zero-sum game. At the most, an invading country would, after annexing some territory to showcase its ‘valor’ for domestic consumption, call a ceasefire soon to de-escalate the tension.
In Ukraine, Russia is trying to prevent this border country from joining the 30-nation NATO. If it fails, even Belarus could join the American-European organization, in which case there will remain no buffer states between Russia and Europe. That is why Moscow is trying to prevent Ukraine (and Belarus) from inching into the European Union. Both sides are putting pressure on one another to get the maximum mileage.
On Sunday, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan warned Putin could order an attack on Ukraine within days or weeks, as Washington and its European allies continued efforts to offer the Russian President a diplomatic way out of the crisis, the media reported.
As a pressure tactic, Moscow has amassed over 100,000 Russian troops near the Ukraine border but said it is “not planning an invasion”. However, it said it could take military action—without specifying it!–if its security demands are not met. These demands include a promise that NATO will never admit Ukraine, which the West has called unacceptable.
Europe is trying to broker peace, despite the US-Britain combo making noises. The reason is the European Union’s dependence on Russian gas as its chief energy resource. U.S. President Joe Biden spoke to his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on Sunday, ahead of the latter’s visit to Moscow to defuse tensions.
Ukraine, while seeking more military aid, has also sought to calm fears of an invasion. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Sunday urged people to ignore “apocalyptic predictions,” and said his country was strong and had unprecedented global support.
Washington has already clarified it would not send U.S. soldiers to defend Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO. But the US has supplied arms to Kyiv and promised to send 3,000 troops to Poland and Romania to shield Eastern Europe from potential spillover from the crisis.
The United States, with its allies, has also threatened extensive economic sanctions against Russia should it invade Ukraine. U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said on Sunday said any sanctions would hit Putin and Russian elites hard given their reliance on Europe, which is Russia’s largest trading partner, and the U.S. dollar.
Look at Russia’s own dependence on the West. Every day, Russian financial institutions do about USD 46 billion worth of financial transactions globally. And 80 percent of this business is in US dollars. Besides, Europe is Russia’s biggest trading partner, accounting for about 40 percent of Russian commerce. Clearly, Moscow cannot afford a war.
Asked if Russia could instead just turn to China, Adeyemo said the severity of planned U.S. sanctions and Russia’s ties with the West would make that difficult. In fact, China “does not have access” to critical technologies Russia relies on from the United States and its allies. In the Ukraine crisis, China is supporting Russia only to spoil Moscow’s fragile relations with the West.
“Russian elites, who would be cut off from the global financial system, are not putting their money in China. They’re putting their money in Europe and in the United States,” Adeyemo added.
