Covid-19: China may already be suffering with 1 mn infections and 5,000 deaths daily

Virendra Pandit

New Delhi: With the exponential spread of coronavirus, China is estimated to be already suffering with one million Covid-19 infections and around 5,000 deaths every day, the media reported on Thursday.

The current virus wave sweeping the Asian giant may witness a daily case rise to 3.7 million infections in January and 4.2 million in March 2023, Airfinity Ltd, a London-based analytics firm, said.

Although the Chinese government is still not disclosing the real picture, the country is likely experiencing one million infections and 5,000 virus deaths every day as it grapples with what they expected to be the biggest outbreak the world has ever seen, the new analysis suggested.

The situation could worsen for a population of over 1.4 billion people in the coming months.

The company’s modeling of the scale and toll of China’s outbreak, which uses provincial data, shows the impact of the country’s abrupt abrogation of its Zero Covid policy far exceeds the government’s tally.

Officially, Beijing reported only 2,966 new cases for Wednesday and claimed a toll of fewer than 10 Covid-19 deaths since the beginning of December. But that contrasts with widespread reports of hospitals being overwhelmed with patients and crematoriums being pushed 24×7 well beyond their capacity.

China has largely shut down its vast network of mass-testing booths and scrapped efforts to include every single infection in the daily tally, leaving residents to rely on rapid tests with no obligation to report the results.

Its health regulator, the National Health Commission, also quietly adopted a narrower definition for what they consider a Covid-1 triggered death—that only those dying of respiratory problems because of the SARS-CoV-2 virus—will be counted as pandemic victims. This is much more selective than what many Western nations use, making it difficult to gauge the real toll from the current deluge of infections.

These changes mean “the official data is unlikely to be a true reflection of the outbreak being experienced across the country,” said Louise Blair, Airfinity’s head of vaccines and epidemiology, in a statement. “This change could downplay the extent of deaths seen in China.”

Accurately capturing the Covid-19 situation remains difficult across the world as a pivot to living with the virus means fewer countries now test frequently. The emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant and its various sub-variants sparked a jump in infections, including in the US, which posted its highest daily case count to date at nearly 1.4 million infections in January 2022. That coincided with the global number exceeding 4 million.

Mike Ryan, the Emergencies Director at the World Health Organization (WHO), which faced much flak in 2020 and 2021 for allegedly siding with the Chinese narrative, has also said the Covid-19 numbers in the second-largest economy may be much more than what the official figures show.

The WHO said it is prepared to collaborate with China to enhance the nation’s data collection procedures for vital events, including hospitalization and death.

Unprepared for December 7’s sudden cancellation of the zero-Covid lockdowns, Chinese hospitals scrambled for beds and blood, pharmacies scrambled for medications, and authorities raced to create special clinics. According to experts, China could have over a million Covid deaths in 2023.

Official Chinese statistics are no longer a trustworthy indicator. Vaccination rates have increased significantly during the past few weeks. Whether they could administer enough immunizations in the upcoming weeks to avert an Omicron wave’s effects remained unanswered. 

More than any other nation, China possesses nine locally made Covid-19 vaccinations that are licensed for use. However, these obsolete vaccines have not been updated to combat the extremely contagious Omicron form. Beijing has so far insisted that only vaccinations made domestically be used, even though these vaccines are outdated technologies and do not use mRNA technology.

On December 21, despite China claiming no new Covid deaths, dozens of hearses lined up outside a crematorium as Beijing expected an increase in cases.

Ryan said the ICUs in China are reportedly seeing a relatively low number of patients, but anecdotally, they are getting busy.

Funeral home staff claim that residents in the Chinese capital must wait days to cremate their relatives unless they pay high prices to guarantee prompt services, another sign of an increasing death toll.

The last weekend saw a spike in locals looking to cremate departed relatives, according to employees at two different funeral homes in Beijing.