Roving Periscope: Why is Europe wary of attacking Russia?
Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: On Tuesday, they nervously heard Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pillory Europe and almost call them names for abandoning the war-torn country midway, despite their “promises”. Then they gave him a standing ovation and clapped for all of 70 seconds. Finally, they sat down wondering what to do—short of sending troops to the invading Russia.
This was the scene in European Parliament, headed by its President Roberta Metsola. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, also attended the meeting, as did the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, according to media reports.
In vain, the US is trying to prod Europe to send troops to Ukraine. But the Continent is unready. Why does Europe dread to directly attack Russia? A nuclear deterrent? Maybe. But the past nightmares also keep Europe awake.
Even before 1949, when the Soviet Union became a nuclear power, Europe was wary of attacking Russia. All its previous attempts were disastrous. In the early 19th century, Napoleon’s French forces, and in the 20th century Hitler’s Nazi German troops, got buried in Russia’s sub-zero temperatures. Their ill-equipped and starving soldiers were cut off from supplies from their home base and died en masse.
Being a vast and sparsely populated country, Russia was always an inviting black hole for any adventurous European army. It never had to prepare or fight much. Its vast territory and freezing climate defended it. That was how Russia ‘invited’ and then buried the French and German armies—by simply retreating in its strategic depth.
In the 21st century, Europe does not want to relive the specter of mass elimination of its armies in Russia, which is now the world’s top nuclear power as well. Short of sending troops, therefore, the Continent is doing all it can—supplying arms, funding—to help Ukraine. Europe’s handicap is Russia’s strength and Ukraine’s misfortune.
Even America knows this predicament of the Continent. But it also cannot send troops to save Ukraine, not a member of NATO, now that Russia has restored its pre-1991 balance of power vis-à-vis the West.
So, the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has turned ‘impotent’, and its members have lost mutual trust, and collectively that of the USA. Other countries would also have to think thrice about the capacity of the West to defend them.
But we cannot blame Russia alone for Ukraine’s plight. The West has also contributed enough. The US, UK, and the EU mishandled the situation from the very beginning and proved they cannot negotiate even peace, what to talk of winning a war, despite all their financial, military, and technological might.
For instance, the West had given ‘security guarantees’ to Ukraine if it surrendered its nuclear arsenal it had inherited from the then USSR before its dissolution in 1991. A furious Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and Europe could do little except big talk and posturing.
The complacent West committed more blunders that have brought Ukraine and Russia to this devastating war.
For example, after 20 years of an expensive war, the US and its allies abandoned Afghanistan in 2021, handing the war-torn country back to their enemy, the Taliban. This retraction weakened the US commitment and ability, thus emboldening dictators and expansionists.
As early as January 23, that is a month before the February 24 Russian attack, the US and UK uttered uncalled for and undiplomatic statements, painting Moscow in the blackest colors, and withdrawing their diplomats’ families, thus contributing to the imminent war. The US even publicly announced the expected date of the Russian attack, panicking the world, and angering Moscow. The West continued to pay lip service to Ukraine, giving it a false sense of security.
Also, frantic diplomacy and warnings to Russia, the West believed, would deter a strongman like President Vladimir Putin. It did not. Having been part of the KGB himself, and seen the hollowness of such niceties before and after the breakup of the Soviet Union, he fathomed, correctly, that the West was not ready for a real war.
Of course, the West thought, in this networked economy and geopolitical power play, economic sanctions would bleed Russia white. But this is a slow process. By the time its impact on Moscow unfolds in the next few weeks and months, Russia would bulldoze Ukraine.
There was no unanimity among the US and Europe on how to proceed with the economic sanctions against Russia. They debated whether excluding Russia from the SWIFT transactions would actually work in the near term. On February 24, US President Joe Biden’s emphasis on the ‘long-term’ impact further emboldened Russia that its time had come.
Europe knows Russia cannot attack a distant America except through missiles, while the Continent is next door where Moscow could rush its traditional troops to level it. Also, Europe, particularly its biggest economy, Germany, heavily depends on Russia for its energy supplies.
The West realized that any effective counter to Russia could even drive it into the waiting arms of China, which could embolden Beijing to attack Taiwan as well.
Ukraine is an example of how geopolitics is changing. No nation is safe from friends and foes alike!
And that there is a limit to gaining power.
