NEW DELHI, May 15: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday projected the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala around May 31 with a possible variation of plus-minus four days.
The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about 7 days; thereafter it advances northwards, usually in surges, and covers the entire country around July 15.
According to the IMD’s projections, this year’s southwest monsoon is expected to arrive over Kerala around May 31. This onset date serves as a crucial indicator for the progression of the monsoon across the country, bringing relief from scorching summer temperatures as it advances northward.
The state-of-the-art statistical model incorporates six key predictors to predict the onset date, including minimum temperatures over Northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall patterns over the south peninsula, and various atmospheric parameters over the equatorial southeast Indian Ocean and the southwest Pacific Ocean.
The IMD said that its operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 19 years were proved to be correct except in 2015.
It said a fresh wave of scorching heat was set to sweep over Northwest and East India, beginning May 16. The heat wave was expected to intensify over various states in Northwest India, including West Rajasthan, Punjab, south Haryana, and parts of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. East Rajasthan, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh are also expected to experience severe heatwave conditions during this period.
“Heat wave conditions very likely in isolated pockets over Gujarat Region during 15th-17th; Konkan on 15th & 16th; Saurashtra & Kutch on 16th & 17th; Delhi, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha on 18th & 19th May, 2024,” IMD said in a release.
Hot and humid weather is expected to prevail over Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Bihar on May 15 and 16.
(Manas Dasgupta)
