Covid-19:2: Medical journal ‘Lancet’ warns of a million deaths in India by Aug’21

Virendra Pandit 

New Delhi: Prestigious British medical science journal Lancet has warned that India could see the death toll due to Covid-19 potentially climbing to one million by August 1, and advised the government to take immediate steps including rationalizing and implementing the “botched vaccination” speedily to control the pandemic.

Referring to the possibility of a million deaths, the peer-reviewed journal said in an editorial on Friday that “If that outcome were to happen, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government would be responsible for presiding over a self-inflicted national catastrophe.”

Until Saturday morning, a total of 238,270 people have died of Covid-19 in India so far, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MHFW) data.

But some medical experts in India say that Lancet has its own agenda and biases. “It is a scientific journal with a political tone to undermine the Third World. It was silent in 2020 about the collapse of the health system due to the Covid-19 in other countries, such as those of Europe,” said an expert.

Quoting the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research organization, the editorial said “India squandered its early successes in controlling Covid-19. Until April, the government’s Covid-19 taskforce had not met in months.”

India must now restructure its response while the second wave of the pandemic is raging. “The success of that effort will depend on the government owning up to its mistakes, providing responsible leadership and transparency, and implementing a public health response that has science at its heart.”

It suggested that India should adopt a two-pronged strategy. Firstly, the “botched vaccination” campaign must be rationalized and implemented speedily by increasing the vaccine supply and setting up a distribution campaign that can reach the rural and poorer citizens as well.

Secondly, India must control the transmission of the virus, publish accurate data in a timely manner and explain to the people what is really happening and what must be done to bend the epidemic curve, including the possibility of a new national lockdown.

Genome sequencing also needs to be expanded to better track, understand, and control emerging and more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants, it said.

In a sharp criticism of the government strategy, Lancet said that despite warnings about the risks of super-spreader events, the government allowed religious festivals to go ahead, drawing millions of people from around the country, along with huge political rallies, conspicuous for their lack of Covid-19 mitigation measures.

Lancet also noted that modeling suggested falsely that India had reached herd immunity, encouraging complacency and insufficient preparation. “At times, Modi’s government has seemed more intent on removing criticism on Twitter than trying to control the pandemic.”

“Modi’s actions in attempting to stifle criticism and open discussion during the crisis are inexcusable,” it added.