Agriculture: Hot summer temperatures may impact wheat production in India
Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: Although March is yet to begin this Saturday, Mumbai and many cities and towns have already registered high temperatures. The upcoming summer may impact wheat production in India this year, the media reported on Thursday.
After three consecutive years of poor crop yields since 2022, India, the world’s second-biggest wheat producer, was expecting a bumper harvest in 2025 to avoid expensive imports, but the weather may play truant.
According to media reports, March 2025 may become one of the warmest months, and above-average temperatures this month may potentially cut yields of the maturing wheat crop, quoting weathermen.
Unusually higher temperatures could shrink yields this year as well, trimming overall production, which may prompt the government to lower or remove the 40 percent import tax to facilitate overseas shipments to tide over likely shortages.
“March is going to be unusually hot this year. Both the maximum and minimum temperatures will remain above normal for most of the month,” the reports quoted officials at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), ahead of the official announcement from the weather office. The IMD may release its forecast for March temperatures on Friday.
Day temperatures are likely to start soaring from the second week of March, and maximum temperatures could exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104°F) in many states.
After a sharp rise in temperatures in February and March in 2022 shrunk the wheat crop yields, India had to ban exports to keep prices in check.
India’s major wheat-growing states in the central and northern regions may see a sudden jump in maximum temperatures next month, with temperatures potentially rising up to 6 degrees Celsius above average.
“March is not going to be conducive for wheat, chickpea and rapeseed. Crops could experience heat stress,” they said.
Rabi or winter crops, such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas, are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions throughout their growth cycle for optimal yields.
Indian wheat prices jumped to a record high in February because of dwindling supplies.
