The US Intelligence says: India’s conflict with China, Pak a ‘possibility’

Virendra Pandit 

New Delhi:  Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, US intelligence has said, India might respond with military force to “perceived or real” provocations from Pakistan.

It told American lawmakers that it apprehends increased tension between India and Pakistan, and India and China could cause a conflict.

This evaluation is among those included in the annual threat assessment of the US intelligence community. The media reported that it was submitted on Wednesday to the US Congress by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence during a Congressional hearing.

While India and China have, in their bilateral border talks, resolved some border points, relations will remain strained in the wake of their lethal clash in 2020, the most serious in decades, it said.

The expanded military postures by both India and China along the disputed border elevate the risk of armed confrontation between two nuclear powers that might involve direct threats to US persons and interests and calls for US intervention. Previous standoffs demonstrated that persistent low-level friction on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) had the potential to escalate swiftly.

It said the relations between China and India remained almost frozen since their military standoff in Eastern Ladakh in May 2020. New Delhi has asserted that its ties with Beijing cannot be normal unless without peace in the border areas.

The crises between India and Pakistan are of particular concern because of the risk of an escalatory cycle between two nuclear-armed states. New Delhi and Islamabad probably are inclined to reinforce the current calm in their relationship following both sides’ renewal of a ceasefire along the Line of Control in early 2021.

“However, Pakistan has a long history of supporting anti-India militant groups, and under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations. Each side’s perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints,” it said.

The relations between India and Pakistan remain strained over the Kashmir issue and cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan. New Delhi has made it clear that terrorism and talks cannot go together and Islamabad must provide a conducive atmosphere for the resumption of dialogue.

Meanwhile, Pakistan and the US also held a round of counterterrorism dialogue. Their two-day discussions covered a range of topics including counter-terrorism cooperation at multilateral forums, assessment of the regional counterterrorism landscape, cyber security, and countering violent extremism.

They shared their experiences in countering the financing of terrorism and reaffirmed their commitment to addressing the common threat of terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.

The State Department spokesperson Ned Price said the US-Pakistan counter-terrorism dialogue provides an “opportunity for the United States to convey our willingness to work with Pakistan” to address terrorist threats and counter violent extremism, the threats that are in the region, the threats that have the potential to transcend the region as well.

“We have a shared interest in combating threats to regional security,” Price said.

“The goal of a stable and secure South and Central Asia free from terrorism depends on the strength of in large part our partnership with Pakistan. The dialogue is a testament to our shared commitment to a resilient security relationship and an opportunity for a candid discussion on steps we can take together to counter all terrorist groups that threaten regional and global stability,” he said.

He was responding to a question about whether the US takes up with Islamabad the issue of support by the Pakistani army and ISI to terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, active in Kashmir, and Khalistani terrorist groups.

“The United States seeks to expand our partnership to address these challenges. Any group that threatens regional and global stability is, of course, a concern to us. It is something that we discussed in the context of this counter-terrorism dialogue,” Price said.