Roving Periscope: The US re-engages Taliban, may push them against China

Virendra Pandit

New Delhi: Few could have missed the real reason why the US forces, armed to the teeth, suddenly fled from Afghanistan in 2021, in the dead of night, and without even informing then President Hamid Karzai, their own protégé.

No superpower worth its firepower would stew in its own juice.

Of course, for the record, Washington had a reason to show. In February 2020, the United States and the Taliban reached a deal, the Doha Agreement, under which the US agreed to withdraw all its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.

That’s precisely what the US did. But in the dead of night? Without even informing the President they had installed in Kabul? And leaving behind all of their arsenal—which the Taliban have since been using, against Pakistan and other intra-Islamic enemies! And, freezing all Afghan central bank assets worth over USD 7 billion in the USA while the war-battered landlocked nation fought poverty and hunger?

Only three countries—Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—ever recognized the Taliban as the country’s lawful government. But no country formally recognized the Taliban since the Islamist militant movement returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021 when US-led foreign forces withdrew in chaos after a 20-year conflict that saw America ‘wasting’ or investing over USD 900 billion.

Clearly, the Taliban, despite ruling Kabul, have remained under tremendous pressures—economic, social, and political—unable to feed 23 million Afghans.

That’s when the US started ‘re-engaging’ (or arm-twisting) them for the first time since 2021, to potentially use them in Xinjiang, the restive, Muslim-majority western province of China where it has allegedly enslaved over a million people and tried to erase their identity. The US may now use the Taliban against a crippled and bankrupt Pakistan where the Afghan Taliban are already supporting the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) against Islamabad’s “establishment.”

The US re-engagement with the Taliban came soon after the Saudis announced a USD 10 billion oil refinery at Gwadar, Pakistan, from where China could ship energy directly to Xinjiang via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Also, China itself is trying to engage Afghanistan in the CPEC. Since the American withdrawal, it has reportedly invested around USD 2 billion in Afghanistan.

During the bipartite talks at Doha, Qatar, on July 30 and 31, the US officials told the Taliban that Washington was open to technical talks on economic stability and discussions on combating narcotics trafficking, the media reported, adding other areas of focus were narcotics, human rights, girls’ education, etc.

Predictably, the Taliban officials raised the lifting of travel and other restrictions on Taliban leaders and the return of Afghan central bank assets held abroad.

The US also was ready “for a technical dialogue regarding economic stabilization issues soon.”

Most Taliban leaders require UN permission to travel abroad, and Afghanistan’s banking sector has been crippled by sanctions since the takeover by the Taliban administration, which calls itself the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA).

About USD 7 billion in Afghan central bank funds were frozen in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York after the Taliban took power in 2021. Half of the funds now are in a Swiss-based Afghan Fund.

The discussions “included essential talks” with representatives from the Afghan Central Bank and the Afghan Ministry of Finance, focusing on the Afghan economy and challenges in the banking sector.

“Acknowledging the Taliban’s commitment to preventing Afghanistan from being a threat to the United States and its allies, both sides discussed efforts to fulfill security commitments. There was recognition of a decrease in large-scale terrorist attacks against Afghan civilians,” the US said.

To many, mainly in Pakistan, the Taliban’s return to power was their triumph. The terror group took over in August 2021 as Afghanistan’s Western-backed government collapsed in the aftermath of the US’s chaotic withdrawal from the country after 20 years of conflict.

But that was only half the story.

Now, the speculation is that Washington could soon consider recognizing the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan, and unfreeze its funds. This, despite the State Department claiming that the talks “did not indicate any change in the policy of the United States.” Or “any kind of indication of recognition or any kind of indication of normalization or legitimacy of the Taliban.”

When US peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban group’s top political leader at the time, signed a peace agreement in Doha on February 29, 2020, they agreed to “seek positive relations with each other” with the Taliban assuring that it would work towards countering terrorism threats and forming an “inclusive Islamic” government.

Then a drama followed to showcase the strength of the Taliban that it had reconquered Afghanistan.

In August 2021, in a sudden 72-hour blitzkrieg when the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, the US and Afghan relations ‘collapsed.’ With the last US flight out of Kabul, Taliban soldiers entered the airport and declared victory.

And it was ironic that the US deliberately denied the Taliban legitimacy even after signing the Doha Agreement!

Clearly, the USA’s motives are now unfolding…