Roving Periscope: China opposes, Ukraine waits for NATO expansion

Virendra Pandit

New Delhi: As China protested the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) into Asia and the Pacific region, the Western security alliance, mainly focused on Europe, has said it would invite war-torn Ukraine to join it “when conditions are met,” showing its cautious approach so as not to provoke Russia too much right now.

At a Summit of 31 NATO members in Vilnius, the capital of Belarus-bordering Lithuania, its Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg insisted the alliance had never used “stronger language” to back Ukraine in its bitter fight to defeat the Russian invasion, which started on February 24 last year. Belarus is a key ally of Russia.

NATO leaders on Tuesday dashed President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hopes for a clear timeline for Ukraine to join the alliance, saying they would invite it only when “conditions are met.” Ukraine, bordering Russia, has long been demanding NATO membership, one of the reasons behind its neighbor’s invasion.

NATO leaders pledged that “Ukraine’s future is in NATO” and shortened the eventual process Kyiv would have to go through to enter the alliance, the media reported on Wednesday.

“We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance when allies agree and conditions are met,” a statement said, exposing differences within NATO where European members’ views are different from those of the US. In any case, Europe has been more dependent on Russia for its energy needs.

NATO’s failure to go much beyond a 2008 vow on future membership appeared a bitter blow to President Zelensky, who was also in Vilnius to address an admiring crowd of Lithuanian supporters in a packed city square ahead of his meetings with the NATO leaders.

“It seems there is no readiness either to invite Ukraine to NATO or to make it a member of the alliance,” he declared on Twitter, after getting advance notice of the cautious language in the Summit statement.

“This means that a window of opportunity is being left to bargain Ukraine’s membership in NATO in negotiations with Russia. And for Russia, this means motivation to continue its terror,” he said, dubbing it “absurd” that no timeframe was set for an invitation.

“Uncertainty is weakness. And I will openly discuss this at the Summit,” he said, vowing that–far from exposing NATO members to conflict with Russia– Ukraine’s membership would make the alliance stronger and safer.

As Zelensky was speaking, Moscow upped the pressure on the NATO leaders meeting in Vilnius, claiming that its forces had made 1.5 km of progress across a two km wide section of the eastern front in Ukraine.

Sensing Zelensky’s disappointment over his hopes for a membership timetable, Western officials stressed that a broader package of support proposals would be designed to give Ukraine a military edge over the invader.

Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the G-7 group of major industrialized economies would issue a declaration on long-term support to kick in once “peace is obtained.”

In the nearer term, Berlin pledged another 700 million euros (USD 771 million) in military assistance to Kyiv, including two Patriot missile system launchers, another 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, and 25 Leopard 1 tanks.

French President Emmanuel Macron said France will join Britain in supplying long-range SCALP or Storm Shadow cruise missiles to allow Ukraine to strike Russian targets deep behind the frontline.

And Denmark and the Netherlands said an 11-nation coalition will start training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets next month, with a new training center to be set up in Romania.

While eastern European nations, sharing borders or proximity with Russia, had pushed for an explicit timetable to allow Kyiv to join, the US and Germany are reluctant to go beyond an earlier vow that Ukraine will become a member one day.

US President Joe Biden said there is no agreement to offer Kyiv membership while the war with Russia rages, as this could drag NATO directly into the conflict.

The biggest war in Europe since World War II has propelled NATO into the most sweeping overhaul of its defenses since the end of the Cold War.

Alliance leaders signed off on new regional plans to protect against any potential Russian attack and backed bolstering defense spending targets. They agreed that their established goal of spending two percent of their national output on defense will become a minimum level.

“We do so recognizing more is needed urgently to sustainably meet our commitments as NATO allies,” the Summit communique said.

“We affirm that in many cases, expenditure beyond 2 percent of GDP will be needed in order to remedy existing shortfalls and meet the requirements.”

Meanwhile, China’s mission to the European Union issued a statement expressing strong opposition to NATO’s “eastward movement into the Asia-Pacific region” and cautioning that any actions perceived as a threat to Beijing’s rights would be met with a resolute counteraction, the media reported on Tuesday.

China rejects the references (to China) in NATO’s joint communique from the Vilnius Summit, it said and emphasized Beijing’s commitment to firmly protect its sovereignty, security, and development interests. 

“Any act that jeopardizes China’s legitimate rights and interests will be met with a resolute response,” it said.

Its response came after NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, while addressing reporters, highlighted that China is progressively posing challenges to the rules-based international order. He urged alliance partners to maintain open channels of communication and engage in dialogue with China.

Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand leaders participated in the two-day Summit, representing the Asia-Pacific region.

China accused NATO of disregarding fundamental realities, distorting Beijing’s stance and policies, and intentionally defaming it in its communique.

It expressed its deep concern over NATO’s repeated assertions of being a “nuclear alliance” in the communique, emphasizing that such statements would only heighten tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.

During his second participation in the NATO summit, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida aimed to emphasize the importance of the military alliance to be mindful of risks in East Asia.

Also, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol sought enhanced international security cooperation in light of increasing threats from North Korea and the ongoing tension related to China.