Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: A study carried out by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s Rocket Force has warned that Chinese cities could face the possibility of a nuclear terrorist attack, and highlighted concerns over Japan’s nuclear capabilities and its pursuit of “remilitarisation,” the media reported on Tuesday.
The possibility of a large-scale global nuclear war remained relatively low, it maintained, but warned that a smaller nuclear attack by countries or terrorist groups could not be ruled out.
“Once certain countries or terrorist groups take such a risk, the possibility that Chinese cities could suffer a nuclear terrorist attack cannot be ruled out,” the study said.
The report modelled a scenario in which a major Chinese city was hit by a single low-yield nuclear weapon, including smaller-scale tactical weapons. Drawing on data from the 1945 Hiroshima bombing and simulations conducted around the world, the researchers assessed the challenges medical teams could face in the aftermath.
According to the study, emergency responders would have to deal with hazardous conditions, widespread social disorder and complicated patterns of injuries.
China’s Preparedness
China has already established an emergency rescue network comprising more than 30 bases to deal with casualties following a nuclear attack.
However, the researchers called for the country’s medical response capacity to be expanded through additional resources and specialised training, and recommended that local authorities maintain adequate stocks of emergency supplies, including antibiotics and radiation-protection equipment. These supplies, they said, should be kept in a state of “combat readiness.”
The study also called for greater public education on nuclear and radiation safety, rescue procedures and protective measures. Such awareness, it said, could help minimise irrational behaviour and panic during an emergency.
Even a low-yield nuclear terrorist attack could result in heavy casualties and complex, multi-trauma injuries, making the medical response more difficult than that required following an accident at a civilian nuclear facility.
Such an incident would pose a “huge test” for the medical capacity of any city or country, the authors wrote, urging China to “prepare for a rainy day.”
Flags Japan
The report came amid Beijing’s long-standing concerns over Tokyo’s nuclear ambitions and what China describes as Japan’s pursuit of “remilitarisation.”
An official report released in January 2026 claimed that Japan “may already have produced weapons-grade plutonium in secret” and possessed “the technological and economic capabilities to achieve nuclear armament in a short period of time.”
Japan had “established a comprehensive nuclear fuel cycle system and possesses robust nuclear industrial capabilities.”
The PLA’s warnings came against the backdrop of growing concerns over a renewed global nuclear arms race. The end of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the last remaining cap on US and Russian nuclear arms, has further amplified those concerns.
In January 2022, China, the United States, Russia, Britain and France, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, had issued a joint statement affirming that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”
The South China Morning Post reported that the possibility cannot be ruled out that small or medium-sized nuclear-armed or potentially nuclear-armed states, driven by geopolitical or religious conflicts, could carry out a single nuclear-weapon terrorist attack on neighbouring countries or on key cities of major powers.
The study noted that Tokyo was yet to join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, the first legally binding international agreement banning nuclear arms, adopted in 2017. It also claimed Japan was considering changes to its long-standing “three non-nuclear principles” of not possessing, producing or permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons.
“Japan has still not acceded to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and the current Japanese government is even openly considering revising the principle of ‘non-introduction of nuclear weapons’ within its ‘three non-nuclear principles’, sending a major danger signal to the international community,” the report stated.