Monsoon: Unlike Skymet, IMD predicts “normal rains” in India this year from June

Virendra Pandit

New Delhi: Amid widespread concerns about the impact of global warming, ‘shifting seasons’ and rising temperatures on world economies, India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday predicted a “normal monsoon” in the South Asian country this year—belying the Skymet forecast of a relatively drier spell in the coming rainy season, starting in June.

Quoting an IMD report, a senior government official said India is expected to see a “normal monsoon” this year with a long-period average (LPA) of 96 percent between June and September.

M Ravindran, Secretary, Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, said that IMD expects monsoon 2023 to be normal with rainfall of 83.5 centimeters.

This fresh prediction came just a day after India’s private forecaster Skymet predicted a “below normal” rainfall this monsoon with an LPA of 94 percent.

According to the IMD, region-wise normal rains are likely over peninsular India, adjoining East Central India, East India, North East India, and North West India, and below-normal conditions might prevail over some parts of North West India, parts of West Central India and North East India.

El Nino’s impact might be felt during the second half of the monsoon season. In the past, 60 percent of El Nino years have been normal monsoon years.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is another parameter for the Southwest monsoon, is likely to be positive. Besides, snow cover over the Eurasia and Northern Hemisphere, which has been low during the spring season, would also have a positive impact on the Indian monsoon, the report said.

IMD’s Director-General Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said “The negative impact of El Nino will be countered by positive IOD and low snow cover over the North Hemisphere and Eurasia that will ultimately result in normal monsoon.”

Much of India’s agriculture depends on rain. The Union Ministry of Agriculture said at least 51 percent of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40 percent of production, is rain-fed and its dependence on monsoon remains critical. Also, 47 percent of India’s population depends on agriculture for their livelihood. So, a good monsoon is directly correlated to a healthy rural economy and also the national economy.

IMD’s LPA is “the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) average over a long period like 30 years, 50 years, etc.” Usually, in India, a 50-year LPA covers large variations on either side caused by years of unusually high or low rainfall because of El Nino or La Nina.

IMD maintains LPAs for the entire country on a national and local level.

India’s average, or normal, rainfall is between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 88 centimeters (35 inches) for the four-month season beginning June.

If the seasonal rainfall is between 90 and 95 percent of the LPA, it is called a “below normal” monsoon. If it is between 105 and 110 percent of the LPA, it is “above normal,” and above 110 percent, it is called “excess” rainfall.

Recently, Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, said El Nino is likely to keep monsoon rains below normal, posing a potential risk for the crop output in the country. It predicted monsoon rains to be 94 percent of the LPA because of the El Nino impact, which is causing concern again after four consecutive years of normal to above-normal rains.

Skymet said that rains in the June-September period, which provide over 70 percent of India’s annual precipitation, are expected to be 816.5 millimeters (mm) against the usual 868.8 mm, with an error margin of +/- 5 percent. The performance of the agriculture sector also depends on the timeliness, spread, and distribution of the monsoon rains.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including the area off the Pacific coast of South America.

El Nino, whenever it has occurred, has left a considerable impact on rains in India, leading to below-normal rainfall across the country. There have been drought-like situations also because of this global phenomenon, leading to crop loss, and resulting in rising food prices.