Electricity: ‘By 2050, India’s ACs would consume more power than entire Africa’

Virendra Pandit

New Delhi: India is geographically larger than Europe, minus Russia’s European part, and the British called the South Asian country a ‘subcontinent.’ By 2050, however, the air-conditioners installed in a rising India will alone consume more electricity than an entire continent—Africa—will do.

India’s demand for electricity for running household air conditioners is estimated to expand nine-fold by 2050 and will exceed total power consumption in the whole of Africa today, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.

In its latest World Energy Outlook, IEA said India will see the largest energy demand growth of any country or region in the world over the next three decades.

It projected India’s energy supply to rise from 42 exajoules (EJ) in 2022 to 53.7 EJ in 2030 and 73 EJ in 2050 under stated policies scenarios and 47.6 EJ by 2030 and 60.3 EJ by 2050 as per announced pledges, the media reported.

Oil demand is seen rising from 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 to 6.8 million bpd in 2030 and 7.8 million bpd in 2050 under the stated policies scenario. Under announced pledges, this demand is seeking 6.2 million bpd in 2030 and 4.7 million bpd in 2050.

The IEA said over the past five decades, India witnessed over 700 heatwave events, which have claimed over 17,000 lives. Fuelled by its geographic and meteorological conditions, air conditioner ownership in India has been steadily rising with growing incomes, tripling since 2010 to reach 24 units per 100 households.

“The impact of cooling needs on electricity consumption. Electricity demand is sensitive to temperatures, and in India’s case, there is a sharp increase in demand as temperatures cross the 25-degree Celsius threshold.”

Electricity consumption due to space cooling increased 21 percent between 2019 and 2022, and today nearly 10 percent of electricity demand comes from space cooling requirements.

“Household air conditioner ownership is estimated to expand ninefold by 2050 across the IEA scenarios, outpacing the growth in ownership of every other major household appliance including televisions, refrigerators, and washing machines,” it said.

“Residential electricity demand from cooling increases ninefold in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) by 2050.”

The IEA said by 2050, “India’s total electricity demand from residential air conditioners in the STEPS exceeds total electricity consumption in the whole of Africa today.”

In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), however, electricity demand for air conditioners is nearly 15 percent lower in 2050 than it is in the STEPS as a result of increased use of energy-efficient air conditioners and thermal insulation in buildings. “This reduction itself is larger than the total electricity generation by several countries today, such as that of the Netherlands.”

The growth in ownership and use of air conditioners and other cooling equipment is one of the key drivers of the increase in peak electricity demand in India.

“Lowering cooling demand through energy efficiency policies, therefore, reduces the need for investment in batteries or expensive standby generation capacity, and thus helps to integrate renewables more cost-effectively,” the IEA said.

India is moving into a dynamic new phase in its energy development marked by a long-term net zero emissions ambition, increased regulatory sophistication, a focus on clean energy deployment, and the creation of domestic clean energy technology supply chains.

Recognizing the potential to transform its energy sector and reduce the import burden of fossil fuels while reducing carbon dioxide emissions, India has announced a net zero emissions target by 2070 and has put in place policies to scale up clean energy supply and clean technology manufacturing.

Although India’s population growth has slowed to reach replacement levels, its urban population will increase by 74 percent, and per capita income will triple by 2050. Industrial output expands rapidly, for example through a tripling of the output of iron and steel, and a doubling of cement, plus there is a ninefold increase in residential air conditioner ownership by 2050.

“As a result, demand for oil and natural gas increases in the STEPS by nearly 70 percent between 2022 and 2050, while coal demand increases by 10 percent, even as solar PV makes inroads into electricity generation. India’s annual CO2 emissions still rise by nearly 30 percent by 2050, which is one of the largest increases in the world,” the outlook said.