Roving Periscope: Modi may negotiate ‘honorable’ exit to get war fatigued Russia off the Ukraine hook
Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: Wars are easy to start, but difficult to close—honorably!
Amid reports of war fatigue in its seven-month-long Ukraine conflict, death and maiming of an unspecified but many troops, the unwillingness of many fleeing Russian soldiers to continue the invasion ahead of the biting winter from next month, and global diplomacy to bring the two neighbor’s hostilities to a close may have, together, brightened up the possibility for peace.
According to reports, Ukraine has, in a counteroffensive in the last few weeks, recovered around 10,000 square km of its land lost to the Russian troops who are quickly melting away in several areas.
Russian President Vladimir Putin—who had, when he invaded Ukraine on February 24, predicted the conflict would be over in 48 or 72 hours—is now worried about the blowback from the inconclusive and terribly expensive war because of the West pumping in financial and military resources in Ukraine to prolong the conflict.
Also, many Russians are now disenchanted with the fratricidal war against a former Soviet Union member. Sentiments are running high after some politicians in St. Petersburg—the socio-cultural-historic capital of the former Russian Empire—questioned Putin’s leadership.
Clearly, Moscow is in a Catch-2022 situation! Some reports suggested Putin might seek an ‘honorable’ exit from Ukraine via ‘mediators.’ Being isolated and under Western-led sanctions, he cannot depend on other world leaders, including his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. The Chinese President is a global pariah because of Covid-19, debt-trapping, and the Taiwan issues.
Putin may have, therefore, seen Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a negotiator and mediator. Modi has already tried to wage peace between the two warring countries and spoken to their Presidents several times in the past seven months. It is unclear if Putin has sounded Modi to start peace efforts in this direction.
Modi’s open assertion during his September 18 meeting with President Putin at Samarkand (Uzbekistan), that today it’s not the “era of war” appears part of this diplomacy. Without Moscow’s green signal, New Delhi would not have risked a time-tested friendship when Modi said what he did in the presence of the Russian leader and in front of cameras for the world to listen.
Predictably, the western media lapped it up and praised Modi. This may be the beginning of Track II diplomacy.
Another sign came from Moscow itself—it would probably be satisfied if Ukraine’s Russian-speaking areas became part of the Russian Federation. It is already a fait accompli since the beginning of Ukraine’s invasion.
President Putin announced a “partial mobilization” on Wednesday that will see 300,000 Russian reservists called up in a noteworthy escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine’s eastern regions where Russian-speaking people had announced ‘freedom’ from Kyiv and ‘merger’ with Russia in February-March.
“Parliaments in the People’s Republics of the Donbas and the civil-military administrations in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions would hold referendums on the future of the territories and have appealed to Russia to support such a step. We will do everything to ensure safe conditions to hold the referendums so that people can express their will.
“We will support the decision on their future, which will be made by most residents in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.”
By gaining these territories, Russia can show it off as the ‘trophy’ of the Ukraine war.
