Roving Periscope: India now a ‘major player’ in the Middle East, says FP

Virendra Pandit

New Delhi: In one of the most interesting geopolitical developments in years, India has emerged as a ‘major player’ in the Middle East, Foreign Policy, a leading American magazine focusing on global affairs, has said.

It’s time to take New Delhi’s projection of power in the region seriously, it added.

Highlighting New Delhi’s deepening and growing ties with major countries in the region, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, the magazine said there is little the United States can do about this development and may even, in a paradoxical way, benefit from it, foreign policy expert Steven A. Cook argued, the media reported on Saturday.

Steven A. Cook is the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and is the author of False Dawn: Protest, Democracy, and Violence in the New Middle East.

The evolution of India’s place in this region reflects the changing international order and the willingness — perhaps even eagerness — of these nations to benefit from the new multipolarity, he said.

“If the United States’ Middle Eastern partners are looking for an alternative to Washington, it is better that New Delhi is among the choices.

“The US may no longer be the undisputed big dog in the region, but as long as India expands its presence in the Middle East, neither Russia nor China can assume that role,” he asserted.

Cook recalled his India visit a decade ago, saying what had struck him then was that Indians did not want to play a larger role in the Middle East. In the 10 years since his trip, however, things have changed.

“While US officials and analysts are obsessed with every diplomatic move Beijing makes and eye Chinese investment in the Middle East with suspicion, Washington is overlooking one of the most interesting geopolitical developments in the region in years: the emergence of India as a major player in the Middle East,” he said.

In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are aggressively seeking ways to expand relations with India, the author said.

It is a significant shift because both these Islamic countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, have long aligned with Pakistan, Cook said, noting that the shift to India stems in part from a common interest in containing Islamist extremism, but much of the pull is economic. He also highlighted the growing economic ties between India and the two countries to make the point.

Underlining India’s strong ties with Israel, Cook said these relations are, perhaps, the most developed of New Delhi’s relations in the region.

These ties have rapidly developed in a variety of fields, notably high tech, and defense after Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the first Indian head of government to visit Israel in 2017 and his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu returned the honor a year later.

In the past, India’s business community shied away from investing in Israel, given the country’s small market and controversial politics but this may be changing.

In 2022, the Adani Group and an Israeli partner won a tender for Haifa Port in Israel for USD 1.2 billion. The two countries are also negotiating for an India-Israel Free Trade Agreement, it said.

“Of course, the India-Israel relationship is complicated. India remains steadfast in its support for the Palestinians; has friendly ties with Iran, from which New Delhi has purchased significant amounts of oil; and Indian elites tend to see Israel through the prism of their country’s own colonial experience.”

Citing PM Modi’s recent visit to Egypt, Cook said this was an episode in the ongoing Egyptian-Indian ‘love fest,’ just six months after Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was the guest of honor at India’s 74th Republic Day celebrations in January 2023. This was the Egyptian leader’s third visit to New Delhi since assuming power.

Like China, India also sees Egypt as a gateway for exporting goods to Africa and Europe.

The US policymakers and analysts should look at India’s growing role in the Middle East through the prism of America’s great power competition with China.

An additional counterweight to Beijing in the Middle East, Cook said, would be helpful as the Biden administration shifts from de-emphasizing the region to regarding it as an area of opportunity to contain China.

“And Modi’s visit to Washington in late June was also a love fest, including a State Dinner and address to a joint session of Congress,” it said.

Cook argued that, for all the positive vibes of the US-India relations, it seems unlikely that New Delhi wants to be the strategic partner that Washington imagines.

When it comes to the Middle East, India diverges sharply from the United States and Israel on Iran, and Washington should temper its expectations about what the expansion of India’s economic and security ties to the Middle East means, the article said.

“It is unlikely that India will line up with the United States, but it is also unlikely that New Delhi will undercut Washington as both Beijing and Moscow have done.”