Roving Periscope: Aging superpowers US, Russia rush to get India on board

Virendra Pandit

New Delhi:  The United States and Russia, engaged in a no-holds-barred war of words over Ukraine, are making fervent efforts to bring India, the emerging fifth-largest economy ($3.7 trillion by 2024) in their camps: New Delhi is the only major world capital that has not succumbed to geopolitical and economic pressures of the two warring camps.

That is why both the US and Russia are rushing their top officials to India this week to possibly thrash out a face-saver for both the aging superpowers.

While US President Joe Biden is sending the 46-year-old Daleep Singh, his top Indian-American advisor and a key architect of Washington’s economic sanctions against Moscow, on Wednesday on a two-day visit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will be in New Delhi on March 31 and April 1.

Singh, who is the Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics, will discuss the “consequences” of Russia’s “unjustified war” against Ukraine and the development of an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, the White House announced.

India, which has remained ‘neutral’ in the Russo-Ukraine war, may emerge as the fulcrum of a New World Order as the two old ‘superpowers’ find both their prestige and power at stake. China, which sided with Russia hoping to do a Ukraine in Taiwan should Moscow succeed, could not be this fulcrum; and other countries, including Turkey (a NATO member), are not seen as neutral.

Ukraine has made both the US and Russia look quite weak and unable to thrust their will on others.

For Russia, the Ukraine war is proving extremely expensive. It is losing an estimated USD 50 billion per day in terms of weapons, lives, and collateral damages, like businesses, because of the sanctions imposed by the West and its allies. Besides, even after 35 days of the inconclusive war, Moscow has little to showcase as tangible gains and has lost global trust as a partner.

America, likewise, has lost its image as a trusted partner in Europe, NATO, and even in the upcoming Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), it formed with India, Australia, and Japan to counterbalance China in the Indo-Pacific Region. Washington is facing the stark reality that it could not shield Ukraine from destruction. The US, despite its humongous technological, financial, and diplomatic heft, could not stop Russia from invading Ukraine.

Moscow has also lost face because of its inability to quickly win the war, which it believed would be over in a couple of days. For 35 days, Ukraine has surprisingly resisted Russia’s attempts to capture its capital Kyiv, with indirect help from the West in terms of weapons and funds.

The only course left for Russia and America, therefore, may be to minimize their losses through some face-saver before their damages mount any further. That is the likely reason Washington rushed its top official to New Delhi ahead of the Russian Foreign Minister’s scheduled visit to India over the weekend.

Lavrov is expected to meet External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval. It is not clear if he would also call on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is the first visit of a top Russian minister outside Russia after it launched the war on Ukraine on February 24. He is coming to India after a two-day visit to China.

His talks with the Indian side could focus on the global geopolitical situation in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the media reported on Wednesday.

For the US and Russia, India could be the obvious choice, as New Delhi has adopted a neutral stand on the ongoing conflict. While abstaining from voting against Russia at various forums of the UN, India called for diplomatic dialogue and adherence to the UN charter on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations. It has also sent humanitarian help to the war-affected people of Ukraine. Moscow appreciated the Indian position at the UN.

However, last Thursday, India abstained on a resolution pushed by Russia in the UN on the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, which was seen as reflective of its neutral position on the conflict.

During Singh’s visit, the preparations for the upcoming ‘2+2’ foreign and defense ministerial dialogue in Washington next month are also likely to figure. The dialogue may take place around April 11.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh will hold talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin in Washington.

Not only the US and Russia, but other countries are also sending their top officials to India. They include British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and German Foreign and Security Policy Advisor Jens Plotner, both on March 31.