Roving Periscope: After the failed Wagner mutiny, top Russian Generals ‘disappear’

Virendra Pandit

New Delhi: After the Wanger Group’s brief mutiny last weekend, some top generals of the Russian armed forces have dropped out of public view, the media reported on Thursday.

As President Vladimir Putin, 70,  increasingly looked vulnerable after the biggest-ever challenge to his authority in nearly three decades, Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s top general, has not appeared in public or on state-controlled TV since the aborted mutiny on Saturday last when the private militia chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former Putin chef, demanded that Gerasimov be handed over.

Not just Gerasimov, but some other senior generals, too, have not been seen since then, the reports added.

Amid unconfirmed reports of one of the generals being arrested, this is viewed as President Putin’s attempt to purge the ‘rebels’ and reassert his authority. The Wagner revolt was, basically, aimed at toppling the military top brass which, Prigozhin claimed, had failed to provide enough supplies to his militia in Ukraine and, later, attacked the mercenary gang.

General Gerasimov, 67, has not been mentioned in any defense ministry press release since June 9. He is the Commander of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the holder of one of Russia’s three “nuclear briefcases,” according to some Western military analysts.

Another top officer, General Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed “General Armageddon” by the Russian media for his aggressive tactics in the Syrian conflict, is also invisible in public. He is the Deputy Commander of Russian forces in Ukraine.

According to a New York Times report on Tuesday, based on a US intelligence briefing, he had prior knowledge of the mutiny and that Russian authorities were checking if he was complicit.

However, the Kremlin on Wednesday played down the report, saying there was and would be a lot of speculation and gossip.

The Russian-language version of the Moscow Times and a military blogger reported Surovikin’s arrest, while some other military correspondents, who command large followings in Russia, said he and other senior officers were being questioned about their possible role in the mutiny.

Meanwhile, Rybar, an influential channel on the Telegram messaging application run by a former Russian defense ministry press officer, said a purge was underway.

The government was trying to weed out military officers who allegedly showed “a lack of decisiveness” in putting down the mutiny, There are reports that sections of the armed forces might have done little to stop Wagner fighters in the initial stage of the rebellion on Saturday last week.

“The armed insurgency by the Wagner private military company has become a pretext for a massive purge in the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces,” said Rybar.

Such a move, if confirmed, could alter the way Russia wages its war in Ukraine — which it claims is a “special military operation” — and cause turmoil in the ranks at a time when Moscow is trying to stymie a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Any purge of these officers could also cement or elevate the positions of other senior military and security figures regarded as loyal to Putin.

Some Russian and Western analysts believe Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, a veteran Putin ally whom Prigozhin wanted to bring down along with Gerasimov because of his alleged incompetence, may now be safer in his job.

“I think he (Prigozhin) actually expected something would be done about Shoigu and Gerasimov, and that Putin would rule in his favor,” Michael Kofman, a Russian military specialist at the Carnegie Endowment think tank, tweeted.

“Instead, his mutiny may have ensured their continued tenure, despite being universally recognized as incompetent, and widely detested in the Russian Federation’s armed forces.”

Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard and a former Putin bodyguard, might be another beneficiary as he went public saying his men were ready to “stand to the death” to defend Moscow from Wagner.

Gerasimov was conspicuously absent, unlike Shoigu who has made several public appearances when Putin on Tuesday thanked the army for averting a civil war,

Surovikin, Gerasimov’s deputy, was last seen on Saturday when he appeared in a video appealing to Prigozhin to halt his mutiny. He looked exhausted and it was unclear if he was speaking under duress.

There were unconfirmed Russian media and blogger reports on Wednesday evening that the arrested Surovikin was being held in Moscow’s Lefortovo detention facility. He was not in touch with his family since then and his bodyguards had gone silent too.

Prigozhin, who had spent months vilifying Shoigu and Gerasimov for their alleged incompetence in the Ukraine war, had frequently praised Surovikin who is widely respected in the army for his experience in Chechnya and Syria.

Surovikin, who did a stint as overall Commander of the Ukraine war before Gerasimov took over, is regarded by Western military analysts and by parts of the Ukrainian military as an effective operator. He was even seen as a potential future defense minister.