No expensive fossil fuel: EVs may dominate Indian roads, and skies, in the 2030s
Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: One rupee per kilometer! That is the cost of running an electric vehicle.
That is why battery-powered big and small cars, and two and three-wheelers, marked with green registration plates, dot several Indian roads, especially in major cities. With electricity charging stations opening everywhere, even in housing societies and residential quarters, and battery-exchange centers coming up even at petrol stations, electric vehicles (EVs) might rule the Indian roads by the next decade.
Not only EVs but even flying cars, fictionalized in science fiction films like Star Wars, and flying taxis, may hit the ‘roads’ in the skies in the next decade. We could then convert our rooftops into parking or landing lots!
The trend is already here. The Indian EV market is expected to expand at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49 percent until 2030, with the segment’s volumes set to cross yearly sales of 17 million by 2030, according to a report on Tuesday.
This projected growth would be driven by factors such as rising fuel prices, entry of new players, advancement in EV technology, continued subsidy support from both the central and state governments, and expected implementation of emission standards, India Energy Storage Alliance (IESA) said in its report.
The report observed that the EV industry in India experienced one of the quickest recoveries from the pandemic-induced slowdown in 2020, noting that the electric two-wheeler segment accounted for 50 percent of the total over 4.67 lakh EV sales in the domestic market, followed by the low-speed e-three-wheelers in 2021.
Other segments also showed a notable increase as the Indian economy started recovering post-pandemic.
With a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, the Indian EV market would expand at a CAGR of 49 percent until 2030. It is predicted to reach annual sales of 17 million units, including 15 million two-wheelers, by that time.
Between 2021 and 2030, the yearly battery demand may increase at a CAGR of 41 percent, reaching 142 GWh, the report said.
The EV market would increase quickly after 2024-25, as the initial cost of these vehicles might come down to match those of internal combustion engine-powered vehicles on the back of falling battery prices, advancements in EV technology, domestic production, and economies of scale.
According to the report, lead-acid batteries continued to dominate the Indian EV ecosystem in 2021, accounting for 81 percent of the market because of the high demand for e-rickshaws.
The market share of lithium-ion batteries is steadily growing, and in 2021, the demand for these batteries exceeded the 1 GWh threshold for the first time.
Besides, among lithium-ion chemistries, Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) is the chosen option for e-three and four-wheelers. In contrast, it said that Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) is the preferred option for e2W and e-buses.
The FAME II incentives scheme, launched by the government to look into ways to make EVs cheaper and attractive to the end-users and has now been extended to 2024, has benefited more than 1.8 million automobiles, IESA said in the report.
