Congress Punctures Holes in Modi Government’s Claims of Inclusive Growth in 11 Years
Manas Dasgupta
NEW DELHI, June 10: The Congress has accused the Narendra Modi government of celebrating reduction in the number of people under the extreme poverty line with “manipulated data.”
While different survey reports showed that the poverty reduction in India slowed down significantly after 2011-12, the recent World Bank data showed a drop in extreme poverty to 5.3 per cent in the last 11 years from 27.1 per cent in 2011-12
“The Modi Government is celebrating a drop in extreme poverty to 5.3% but this is based on a poverty line of $3 per day which is certainly not enough to live with dignity,” the Congress said on Tuesday and accused the Centre of brushing aside “inconvenient data.”
The World Bank revised upwards its threshold poverty line to $3 per day. Congress’ media and publicity department head Pawan Khera said, “The Modi Government is celebrating a drop in extreme poverty to 5.3%. But this is based on a poverty line of $3 [₹250] per day — just enough to avoid starvation, but certainly not enough to live with dignity.”
“The 2022-23 Consumption Expenditure Survey, conducted after an 11-year gap, came with a revised methodology — making direct comparisons with the UPA-era data appear favourable, but statistically invalid,” Mr Khera said. “The 2017-18 survey was buried, likely to hide the fallout of demonetisation and GST. COVID-era poverty? Ignored,” he said.
“Meanwhile, the Modi Government evaded Parliament on defining an official poverty line and ignored over 15 questions related to it,” Mr Khera claimed. “Their claim of lifting over 25 crore people out of poverty is based on a manipulated index. CMIE data shows 621 million Indians [44%] still live in poverty. On the Global Hunger Index, India ranks 105th, with 18.7% child wasting and 35.5% stunting,” Mr Khera said.
He pointed out that on the World Happiness Report, India sits at 118th and on the Human Development Index, India loses more than 30% of its score owing to inequality. “All this is inconvenient data. So, it is brushed aside. In the end, the poor are left to endure inflation, unemployment, a steady collapse of public services and declining quality of life while the ruling party’s crony capitalist friends loot thousands of crores with absolute impunity,” Mr Khera said. “This is the story of two India: One that suffers and the other that cashes in,” he added.
The World Bank, in a report, said given India’s inflation rate between 2017 and 2021, a revised extreme poverty line of $3 would constitute a 15% higher threshold than $2.15 expressed in 2021 prices and result in a 5.3% poverty rate in 2022-23. As against 34 crore people below poverty line ($3/per day) in 2011-12, the numbers have come down to 7.5 crore in 2022-23 in absolute numbers.
The World Bank has announced a major revision to global poverty estimates, raising the International Poverty Line (IPL) from $2.15/day (2017 PPP) to $3/day (2021 PPP), according to a factsheet issued by the Press Information Bureau (PIB) on the report.
“While the change led to a global increase in the count of extreme poverty by 125 million, India emerged as a statistical outlier in a positive direction. Using more refined data and updated survey methods, India not only withstood the raised threshold but also demonstrated a massive reduction in poverty,” the PIB said in its factsheet details.
A recent survey report showed that poverty reduction in India slowed down significantly after 2011-12. While poverty levels of 37% in 2004-05 fell to 22% by 2011-12, it has since fallen only by 18% in 2022-23, the paper finds based on its own calculations. In the absence of an official estimate, a number of unofficial and often contradictory estimates have been made, of which this one is the latest.
The authors noted that unlike the World Bank studies, their own imputation models are estimated at the State level or include State-fixed effects when estimated at the sector level. Their methodology shows that while poverty based on the Tendulkar Committee poverty lines fell sharply between 2004-05 and 2011-12 — from 37% to 22% — it subsequently has fallen only to around 18% by 2022. Based on these estimates, the authors add, the number of poor persons in India fell only slightly since 2011-12, from 250 million persons to about 225 million in 2022–23.
The Wage Rates in Rural India (WRRI) data compiled by the Labour Bureau on real wages points to a slowdown in wage rates. It shows that the annual growth rate of wages fell from 4.13% per year between 2004-05 and 2011-12 to 2.3% per year between 2011-12 and 2022-23.
The authors also point out that while the absolute number of workers in agriculture declined by 33 million between 2004-05 and 2011-12, and by a further 33 million by 2017-18, this trend has reversed since then with 68 million workers being added to the agriculture sector since 2017–18. One consequence of the rising workforce in agriculture, the authors point out, has been the decline in the growth of agricultural productivity in recent years. Lower productivity leads to lower wages, which leads to higher poverty levels.
The Congress has also released a booklet on the Modi government’s 11 years at the Centre highlighting stagnated growth rate, rising hunger, and his “unfulfilled promises.” Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh, in a post on X, said the booklet, ’11 Saal, Jhoothe Vikaas ke vade’, commemorates “some of the biggest lies of this Government.”
The AICC research department head Rajeev Gowda, who prepared the booklet, alleged, “This government is very good at fake news and propaganda. It is our job as the Opposition to get people to know this grim reality.” He said that to expose the BJP’s on its promises the party was releasing two sets of documents.
The booklet, ‘Ek Aur Baar Jumla Sarkar’, he said, looks at the promises made by the BJP in its 2024 manifesto, and has since made. The other one, he said, is ’11 Saal Jhoote Vikaas Ke Vaade’, which is a “detailed exposé” of the “hollow promises” of the BJP.
“In the 11-Saal document, one of the first themes that they (BJP) highlight is taking care of the poor and the marginalised. They are very happy that 81 crore people are getting free food grains under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY). But the basic problem of hunger is a much larger crisis in India, and it puts us at 105th out of 127 countries in the World Hunger Index.
“Its implications: malnutrition is affecting our children in a horrible way, crippling their growth. Stunting is at 35.5%; Wasting is at 19.3%; Underweight is at 32.1%,” Mr Gowda said. He said that nearly a third of Indian children are suffering from malnutrition, even as the BJP insists on Viksit Bharat.
“Let’s remind our PM that he has a duty to our children and their future. They (BJP) claim that they have created 4 times the Eklavya residential schools since 2014. They have announced 700+ schools, out of which 300 are still non-functional. Is it rocket science to set up and run a school?” he wondered.
The Congress leader also alleged that the Centre’s claim that India added over 5,000 defence items to the indigenisation list was also not true. “Sadly, 40% of the items listed for indigenisation have not been indigenized as of now. India remains one of the top importers of defence rather than a producer and exporter.
“If you look at ‘mission mode DRDO projects’, 23 out of 55 have been delayed, and the share of R&D in our defence budget is only 5.45%,” he said. Neither is the claim that India was the fastest-growing large economy was true, he said.
“This is true, but what rate are we growing? Are we able to encash our demographic dividend? Any economist will tell you that if we grow below 8.5% a year, we are sacrificing the future of crores and crores of our youngsters because we will not have enough growth, jobs and opportunities that are required to just fulfil the target—the great jumla — 2 crores jobs per year,” he claimed.
He said India’s growth is 6.5% over the last year, which is the lowest rate after the COVID period. “So, what is happening in this 11th year of your Sarkaar, PM Modi? What is happening is reflected in the response of the private sector. Is the Indian private sector investing in India? If you look at the investment figures, after you have given the bonanza tax cut, nothing has changed. They still don’t have confidence in the management of your economy to invest,” the Congress leader said.
He said the fixed capital formation has come down to 32.4%, which was an 11-year low. “There is another legacy: the glaring inequality. The share of wealth in India’s top 1% of people is 40%. And the bottom 50% have to make do with just over 3%,” the former Congress MP said, adding that this is not the economy the country wants.
Mr Gowda said at top universities, 5,000 teaching posts were vacant as of November 2024 and 35% of faculty posts at AIIMS-Delhi and the new AIIMS had over 40% faculty vacancy. He sought to blow a hole also into the Centre’s UDAN Scheme and the ease of living standards for middle-class India in tier 2 and tier 3 cities.
“More than 50% of approved routes never took off by 2023. Of the 619 routes under the UDAN Scheme, only 323 are operational. After ₹4,500 crore spent, UDAN is still struggling to fly,” he said. Mr Gowda said 142 crore trees were planted under the ‘Ek Ped Maa Ke Naam’, but the highest tree cover loss has been recorded under the BJP government.
Congress leader Mahima Singh said in the last 11 years there have been only ‘jumlas.’ She said though the BJP claimed that the government distributed ₹3.7 lakh crore to PM Kisan beneficiaries between April 2022 and November 2023, about 2.25 crore beneficiaries were removed from the list.
