Exit Polls: BJP Likely to Capture West Bengal, Stay on in Assam, Puducherry, DMK may Retain Tamil Nadu, Congress may Upstage CPM in Kerala

Manas Dasgupta

NEW DELHI, Apr 29: Most exit polls released on Wednesday have predicted BJP’s maiden entry in West Bengal holding an edge over the ruling Trinamool Congress, and the BJP-led NDA retaining power in Assam and Puducherry with massive victories, while the Congress-led UDF is likely to upset the CPI(M)-led LDF in Kerala and the chief minister MK Stalin’s DMK-led Alliance stay in power for the second consecutive term in Tamil Nadu.

While the NDTV-Axis My India exit poll data for West Bengal will be released on Thursday for greater accuracy because voting in the state has just ended, six other pollsters have released their numbers, and four of them have said the BJP was poised to come to power in the state for the first time.

Of 294 constituencies in the Bengal Assembly, with 148 required to get a majority, Praja Poll’s numbers will give any Trinamool Congress (TMC) supporter pause. The agency has predicted that the BJP will win 178-208 seats, up from 77 in 2021, while the TMC will be restricted to 85-110, down massively from 215.

P-Marq’s numbers state the BJP will win 150-175 constituencies and the Trinamool between 118 and 138. Matrize has predicted 146-161 seats for the BJP, and Poll Diary 142-171. These pollsters say the TMC will get 125-140 and 99-127, respectively.

On the other end of the spectrum is Janmat Polls, whose data states that the Trinamool Congress will get a thumping majority for the fourth straight time. The agency has predicted between 195 and 205 seats for the Mamata Banerjee-led party and 80-90 for the BJP, which is very close to the figures both parties had in the 2021 elections. Peoples Pulse has also said that the Trinamool Congress will win 177-187 constituencies while the BJP will be restricted to between 85 and 110.

In Tamil Nadu, most exit polls have predicted a DMK victory with at least three agencies forecasting Chief Minister MK Stalin’s party would get anywhere between 122 and 145 seats in the 234-member State Assembly. Actor Vijay’s new party TVK in its first election contest is predicted to win 17 seats. If so, the TVK would have a strong factor in the results.

Peoples Pulse has predicted the DMK and allies would win 125-145 seats, while the AIADMK and allies would get 65-80 seats.

Peoples Insight gave the DMK and allies 120-140 seats, and the AIADMK and allies may win 60-70 seats.

Praja Poll says the DMK and partners would get 148-168 seats; the AIADMK and allies may get 61-81. TVK is forecast to win 1 to 9 seats.

P-Marq has given DMK and allies 125-145 seats; AIADMK and allies 65-85 seats, and actor Vijay’s TVK 16-26 seats. Matrize has given DMK and allies 122-132 seats; AIADMK and allies 87-100 seats, and actor Vijay’s TVK 10-12 seats.

In the 126-member Assam Assembly, almost all the exit polls said the BJP was expected to retain power sweeping the polls with 88-100 seats leaving the main opposition Congress reeling far behind with only 23 to 33 seats.

In Kerala with 140 seats, most exit polls predicted the UDF coming back to power after 10 years with 70 to 90 seats upstaging the LDF with 49 to 68 seats and the BJP intruding into the southern state with greater presence holding 3 to 10 seats, improving upon its own performance of winning only one seat in the last election.

In the 30-member union territory of Puducherry, the NRC-led NDA in which the BJP is an alliance partner, is expected to record second straight win with 16 to 25 seats and the Congress 6 to 12 seats and other parties one or two seats.