Roving Periscope: India to remain most populous nation until 2100, says the UN

Virendra Pandit

New Delhi: India is expected to remain the world’s most populous country until the year 2100 although, after peaking at 1.701 billion in 2062, it will start declining, according to a United Nations report published on Thursday.

At 1.4 billion, India surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023.

“The population of India, expected to remain the world’s largest throughout the 21st century, is likely to decline by 12 percent after reaching its peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion,” said the World Population Prospects 2024 report, published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), the media reported.

Clare Menozzi, Senior Population Affairs Officer at the UN department, explained India’s population trajectory: “India is currently the largest country in the world by population, and it is projected to remain so throughout the century. The population is currently estimated at 1.451 billion and is expected to increase further to 1.69 billion.” At present, the US population is only 345 million.

“It’s expected to peak around the 2060s and then begin to decline slightly. So, by the end of the century, India is projected to be around 1.5 billion, still the largest country in the world by a significant margin,” Menozzi said.

However, China, currently the world’s second-largest nation, is expected to undergo a significant population decline. Its population will decrease from 1.419 billion in 2024 to 1.21 billion by 2054 and further down to 633 million by 2100. This decline is attributed to China’s low fertility rate, which is around one birth per woman on average.

According to the report, India’s population will start declining between January and July 2062. That year, India is likely to add 222,000 people to its population. After that, India’s population will start declining. In 2063, the country would lose around 115,000 people. In 2064, this number would increase to 437,000, and 793,000 in 2065.

Interestingly, by 2054, India and China would retain their positions, but Pakistan would overtake the United States to become the third most populous country with a population of 389 million people. These rankings will then continue until the end of the 21st century.

The UN report also highlighted a global trend of population decline in many countries because of low fertility rates. While the global population will continue growing in the coming decades, it is expected to peak and then gradually decline in the latter half of the century.

The report forecasts global population growth over the next 50-60 years, peaking at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before gradually declining to 10.2 billion by 2100.

The UN report said the world population, at 8.16 billion now, would swell to 10.2 billion in 2083. Between January and July 2083, it would start declining.

The countries that will record the highest jump in their populations between 2024 and 2054 are in Africa. In nine countries—particularly Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, and Somalia—very rapid growth is projected, with their total population doubling between 2024 and 2054.

However, in nearly 100 countries and areas, the share of the population at working ages (between 20 and 64 years) will continue to increase more rapidly than the total population between now and 2054, providing a window of opportunity, known as the demographic dividend. India is one such country.

It added that by 2080, people aged above 65 years will outnumber those under 18 years.

“Countries, especially those with populations that have already peaked or will peak in the next decades, should consider leveraging technology, including automation, to improve productivity at all ages,” the UN report said.

“They should also design more opportunities for lifelong learning and retraining, support multigenerational workforces, and create opportunities to extend working lives for those who can and want to continue working.”

The report also highlighted that globally, women are having one child fewer, on average, than they did around 1990. In more than half of all countries and areas, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1 — the level required for a population to maintain a constant size over the long term without migration.

Nearly one-fifth of all countries and areas, including China, Italy, the Republic of Korea, and Spain, now have “ultra-low” fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.