Roving Periscope: In Netanyahu’s pain, Putin sees a gain in Ukraine!

Virendra Pandit

New Delhi: With the American weapons, dollars, and support ‘diverting’ to Israel after the October 7 invasion by the Hamas terror group, which has claimed over 3,000 lives so far, Russia is looking at an indirect advantage in its ongoing war in Ukraine which the West has supported in the last 20 months.

Apart from the diversion of the West’s focus from Ukraine to Israel, Russia may also benefit from the rising price of crude to bolster its economy, the media reported on Wednesday.

Ukraine is also worried as the US and NATO allies have rebuffed its concerns about their ability to continue supporting it militarily in the aftermath of the Gaza Strip-based terror group Hamas’s attack on Israel, which gets billions of dollars in aid from Washington every year.

According to Russian experts, the Hamas-Israeli conflict could work in the Kremlin’s favor, or at least distract the West’s attention from Ukraine for the time being. It might give Russia time to prepare for the next stage of the war in the coming winter.

President Vladimir Putin’s war objectives could be achieved faster if the US’ diverted focus on the Israel conflict slowed down arms deliveries to Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a news conference on Monday, after talks with Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit.

But Moscow’s hopes may be shortlived as, unlike Ukraine, Israel’s existing weapons supplies are relatively robust because of years of stockpiling, and it can continue the war against Hamas for the time being even without the West’s support.

Of course, Israel has sought Iron Dome missiles, precision-guided munitions, and artillery rounds from the US, as it readies its next round of response to Hamas’s attack. But the pressure on supplies could increase if Israel launches a ground war into the Gaza Strip.

The Hamas-Israel conflict may be discussed on the margins of a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels on Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of this meeting, the West will also discuss weapons deliveries at their monthly Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting.

Even if the US didn’t stop weapons deliveries to Ukraine, it might slow those shipments down. Although it will continue to provide support to Ukraine, it is careful about ensuring it can also respond to other crises, experts said.

A senior Western diplomat said they were not worried about the impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict on the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine, partly because the Israeli military is itself capable and well-equipped.

But this US diversion from Ukraine to Israel has worried President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who is trying to retain Washington’s attention to Kyiv

His concerns started when future US aid for Ukraine was called into question after US Congress dropped assistance for Kyiv from a short-term spending package passed to avert a government shutdown. Future funding could be on even shakier ground now, as the conflict in Israel emboldens Republican lawmakers skeptical of continued support for Ukraine, the media reported.

President Putin said on October 5 at the annual Valdai Club meeting in Russia’s Sochi, that US and European support was keeping Ukraine afloat financially and militarily. If weapons deliveries “were discontinued tomorrow, they would have just one week to go until they used up all their ammunition,” he said.

Europe’s backing for Kyiv also suffered a setback recently after a spat between Poland and Ukraine culminated in a threat by Warsaw to cut off new aid to Kyiv.

The Israel-Hamas conflict’s impact on the price of oil could also boost Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. The price of oil edged lower on Tuesday after fears that the conflict could embroil major energy producers in the region such as Iran and Saudi Arabia had earlier propelled US crude futures above USD 87 a barrel.

“As oil prices go up, this enables them to continue spending on arms production and cover some budget deficits,” said Ann Marie Dailey, a policy researcher at Rand Corporation. “Russia gains an advantage from this in the short-term.”