Disease X: The next pandemic, already on the way, could kill 50 million people

Virendra Pandit 

New Delhi: The next pandemic is ‘already on the way, and it could kill around 50 million people globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned, according to the media reports on Monday.

The global health monitor has dubbed the anticipated next pandemic as “Disease X”, stating that it might already be “on its way.”

Global health experts have cautioned that COVID-19 may be just a precursor to more devastating pandemics in the future.

COVID-19, which broke out worldwide in 2020, has claimed nearly seven million lives globally, the WHO data show.

Dame Kate Bingham, who chaired the United Kingdom’s Vaccine Taskforce, issued a grim warning that the next pandemic could claim at least 50 million lives, emphasizing that the world had been fortunate that COVID-19 was not more lethal. The world shouldn’t be complacent just because COVID-19 is now “largely regarded as a routine illness.”

“Let me put it this way: the 1918–19 flu pandemic killed at least 50 million people worldwide, twice as many as were killed in World War I.”

“Disease X” could also prove over several times as deadly as COVID-19 and the next pandemic might originate from an existing virus.

Drawing parallels with the catastrophic 1918–19 influenza pandemic, that killed over 50 million people, she said, “We could expect a similar death toll from one of the many viruses that already exist. Today, there are more viruses busily replicating and mutating than all the other life forms on our planet combined.”

Scientists are monitoring 25 virus families, each consisting of thousands of individual viruses, any of which could mutate into a severe pandemic. This surveillance does not account for viruses that may jump from animals to humans.

“With COVID, the vast majority of people infected with the virus managed to recover,” Dame Kate said. “Imagine Disease X is as infectious as measles with the fatality rate of Ebola, which is 67 percent. Somewhere in the world, it’s replicating, and sooner or later, somebody will start feeling sick,” she said.

Meanwhile, British scientists have already initiated vaccine development efforts targeting an unidentified ‘Disease X.’ The research, conducted at the high-security Porton Down laboratory complex in Wiltshire, involves over 200 scientists, the reports said.

Their focus is on animal viruses with the potential to infect humans and spread rapidly worldwide. Among the pathogens under scrutiny are bird flu, monkeypox, and hantavirus, which is transmitted by rodents.

For now, however, Disease X is a probability rather than a possibility and might hit at any moment. It could come from a million undiscovered viruses and even be 20 times deadlier than COVID-19.

The next pandemic could be on a similar scale to the “Spanish flu” (influenza) and vaccines will have to be developed and delivered rapidly to combat the disease. Its devastating effects are likely to far outweigh that of COVID-19, which the world was dangerously unprepared for when it hit in early 2020.

Kate said it’s not simply down to a “random patch of bad luck.” Three key factors could be the cause–globalization, over-population in the cities, and deforestation—which has created “ideal conditions” for viruses to jump between species.

“We need to take the first steps in dealing with the next pandemic right now — and that involves putting money on the table. The monetary cost of inaction is seismic. After all, even COVID-19, a milder virus than Disease X, managed to leave us holding a bill for USD 16 trillion in both lost output and public health expenditure.”