Roving Periscope: Trump proposes, but Europe is reluctant to dispose!
Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: A year after America’s independence from Britain, Scottish poet Robert Burns famously wrote in 1786: “The best laid plans of mice and men / Go often awry.”
US President Donald Trump’s multiple plans have also failed to take off at home and abroad, despite much brouhaha.
His favourite weapons of geopolitics are two: threats and tariffs. He has taken umpteen U-turns, so many so that some have even termed his country as the U-turn States of America! In the last few days, he has followed the age-old carrot-and-stick policy against India. But none of them has worked—so far.
He has often changed the tone—only rhetoric, no reality. While he tried to cajole the Indian Prime Minister, his acolytes continued to blame Narendra Modi for all that is preventing the US President from winning the next Nobel Prize!
His confusion and delusion, even utter frustration, over zero achievements since January reflected when, after hectoring for weeks, he suddenly assured India that bilateral trade talks with New Delhi are underway, and then also ‘urged’ his frenemy, the European Union (EU), to impose 100 percent tariff against India!
But Europe has other plans. Unlike Trump, the EU treats tariffs and sanctions differently, considers imposing such tariffs as a risky move, and supports targeting specific entities with sanctions.
So, the EU is unlikely to act in a haste on the Trump ‘advice’ of levying 100 percent tariffs against India and China. On China, Trump has himself been rather lenient lest not provoke the Dragon! It is because of his indecisiveness, last-minute U-turns, and chicken-hearted persona that Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong coined the pejorative that defines the US President: TACO—Trump Always Chickens Out!
Unmindful of how he has become a butt of jokes and memes, and a comic relief to millions worldwide—he even ignored his close aides quarrelling publicly in the presidential private dinner party or a fanatic supporter Charlie Kirk was shot down—Trump appealed on Tuesday to the EU to impose cent percent import duty on the two Asian giants.
He made this appeal directly to EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan and other officials who visited Washington to discuss sanctions coordination against Russia.
The EU imposes sanctions only after an investigation, which usually lasts for months to establish a legally sound justification. So far, the EU has only imposed tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilisers and farm products in the context of the Ukraine war.
Moreover, imposing such tariffs not is only too broad but also risky. Targeting specific entities with sanctions would be much easier, with the option of removing them if they stop impacting Russia. Earlier in July, the bloc imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, along with sanctions on India’s Nayara oil refinery and two Chinese banks.
Trump is also trying to sabotage the EU from finalizing a FRee Trade Agreement (FTA) with New Delhi, for which the two sides are holding talks this week, resolve their differences over issues of agriculture, dairy, and non-tariff barriers, and meet an ambitious end-of-year deadline for a deal.
In the past two decades, total trade between India and the EU saw a surge of 300 percent, the media reported on Thursday.
In 2024, India ranked as the seventh largest trading partner of the EU, accounting for imports worth €71.281 billion. New Delhi was the bloc’s 10th goods export partner, with exports worth €48.771 billion.
Likewise, the EU was India’s fourth trading partner in the world, in terms of imports, accounting for €45.286 billion in imports. Also, the bloc ranked second as India’s trading partner, accounting for €74.291 billion worth of exports.
India’s bilateral trade in goods with the EU was USD 137.41 billion in 2023-24, making it the largest trading partner of India for goods. In addition, the bilateral trade in services, in 2023 was estimated at USD 51.45 billion.
The EU’s imports from India mainly comprise machinery and appliances, chemicals, base metals, mineral products, and textiles, whereas the bloc’s main exports to India include machinery and appliances, transport equipment, and chemicals.
Another reason why the EU is trying to escape Trump’s trap is the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEEC), launched on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September 2023. The corridor, giving competition to China’s Belt and Belt Initiative (BRI), is a significant project as it passes through Marseille in the Mediterranean Sea. A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed by India, the US, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy, and the EU.
The corridor aimed to integrate India, Europe, and the Middle East via the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and the EU. However, no progress has been made so far due to the ongoing Gaza conflict, and Trump’s return to the White House for a second term in January 2025.
