Roving Periscope: Fearing a likely coup, Xi Jinping sacks his deputy; exposes the rot in China
Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: Is China heading into its own violent change of guard? A coup d’etat or coup de grace?
Nobody knows for sure about what is happening in China. But the straws in the wind do indicate the likely storm gathering behind the Bamboo Curtain.
Who knows this better than the one who rules China? Currently…
China’s top leader Xi Jinping is three-in one: Communist Party of China’s General Secretary, PLUS President of the People’s Republic of China, PLUS Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC). He has concentrated all powers in his hands, much more than the country’s Communist founder Mao Zedong or modern architect Deng Xiaoping ever did.
President-for-Life
Since becoming the President in 2013, Xi Jinping, 72, is serving his third term of five years. His handpicked National People’s Congress toadies removed the two-term presidential limit in 2018, a change specifically enabling him to stay in power beyond 2013. Thus, he can potentially remain President-for-life, and continue beyond the traditional 10-year mark, with current speculation pointing towards continued rule as he seeks further terms.
While norms suggested a potential successor would emerge, Xi’s consolidation of power makes it unlikely he will step down soon, with expectations he’ll seek further terms, potentially through the 2027 Party Congress. In essence, there’s no set end date for his presidency, as China’s constitution no longer imposes one.
Xi fears a coup!
To make his way smooth ahead as so many dictators have been doing in world history, Xi has been continuously purging potential challengers to his position (s) by conveniently accusing them of “corruption”. According to reports, he has for long been fearing a coup d’ etat and purged, arrested, or jailed more than 200,000 Communist leaders and specialists from across ranks and files, sectors, departments, etc.
They included even Hu Jintao, former General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (2002-12), who was the immediate predecessor of Xi Jinping. On October 22, 2022, Hu, sitting next to Xi, was unexpectedly forcibly escorted out of the closing ceremony of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in full public view and before cameras. Why? Because he was questioning Xi for concentrating all powers in his own hands.
Even after this consolidation, Xi Jinping likely fears his perceived enemies within and without. Without sound reasoning, therefore, he has sacked top diplomats, bureaucrats, party officials, and military generals almost on a monthly basis.
His latest victim, Zhang Youxia, 75, was Vice-Chairman of the CMC, second only to Xi Jinping in the Communist Party group which controls the armed forces. With the sacking of half-a-dozen generals in recent months, the senior ranks of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) are in tatters, the media reported.
In addition to the routine corruption charges, Zhang was, ironically, accused also of sharing nuclear secrets with the USA! Zhang was among only a handful of senior officers in the PLA with combat experience, making his loss significant for the military.
His removal also poses longer term problems for Xi
The last weekend purging of China’s topmost general, and another senior military officer, General Liu Zhenli, has left serious questions about what triggered the elite power struggles unfolding in the country – and what this means for China’s warfighting capacity, whether it be any ambition to take Taiwan by force or engage in another major regional conflict.
The CMC, usually made up of around seven people, has now been whittled down to just two members – Xi and Gen Zhang Shengmin. All others have been taken down in the “anti-corruption” crackdown following previous waves of detention.
The CMC is responsible for controlling millions of military personnel under the PLA. It is so powerful that when Deng Xiaoping was the paramount leader of the country during the 1980s, this was the only position he held for most of that time.
That only Xi and one CMC general remain on the CMC is unprecedented. “The PLA is in disarray,” the BBC quoted an expert as saying, adding that China’s military now had “a major leadership void.”
“Everything from leaking nuclear secrets to the United States to plotting a coup and factional infighting. There are even rumours of a gunfight in Beijing.”
The official announcement that said Zhang and Liu were “under investigation” also said that they were accused of “serious violations of discipline and law,” a euphemism for corruption.
The PLA Daily made this absolutely clear in an editorial, writing that this move showed the Communist Party’s “zero tolerance” approach to “punishing corruption… no matter who it is or how high their position.”
The specific allegations being made against all of these generals have not been released to the public and may never be. However, that they have been named as under investigation almost certainly means being given a custodial sentence as a minimum.
The PLA Daily editorial was already speaking of Zhang and Liu as if they were guilty, saying they had “seriously betrayed the trust and expectations of the Communist Party’s Central Committee” as well as “trampling on and undermining the Central Military Commission.”
The targeting of the generals may be about corruption, but it may also be about power politics, given how these purges have panned out in the past.
China did have a corruption problem when Xi Jinping came to power, but he has also been accused of using his anti-corruption drive, deploying the Party’s feared discipline inspection teams, to take out would-be political rivals.
And all this has come when Beijing is increasing pressure on Taiwan with threats to, at some point, seize the self-governing island via an all-out attack.
Taiwan is the likely carrot that Xi Jinping continues to dangle before China to reinforce the ‘national agenda’ of reunification, to keep himself in power!
