India Questions WHO’s Report on Covid Deaths in the Country, Says Methodology Used was “Statistically Unsound”

Manas Dasgupta

NEW DELHI, May 5: India has questioned the veracity of its data and methodology of its collection while rebutting the World Health Orgnaisation’s Claim that the actual death toll in India in Covid-19 in the last two years was over 4.7 million, nearly 10 times more than the official figure released by the government, and that the country accounted for nearly one-third of the total fatality in the pandemic recorded globally.

The report of the WHO released on Thursday had also pointed out that the virus had claimed more than three times the number of lives than officially recorded worldwide – a total of approximately 14.9 million fatalities between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021,

Soon after the WHO released its report, India expressed its strong objections to the figures shared by it regarding coronavirus-related deaths in the country. Issuing its strong rebuttal, the centre raised objections to the use of “mathematical model for projecting excess mortality estimates in view of the availability of authentic data. It said the validity and robustness of the models used and methodology of data collection were questionable.

Objecting to the WHO’s methodology in arriving at the death figures, the government said the “figure is totally removed from reality”. Contending that the country has an “extremely robust” system of births and deaths registration, the Union health ministry, in its rebuttal, called the WHO’s system of data collection “statistically unsound and scientifically questionable.”

In its report the WHO said during the two year period, there were 4.7 million Covid deaths in India — 10 times the official figures and almost a third of Covid deaths globally. The global figure, according to the report, was 15 million — more than double the official figure of 6 million. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the total official Covid-19 death toll in India as on Tuesday was 522,676.

In its rebuttal, the government said despite India’s objection to the process, methodology and outcome of this modelling exercise, WHO released the excess mortality estimates without adequately addressing India’s concerns.

It further said India had informed the health body of the availability of authentic data published through the Civil Registration System (CRS) by the Registrar General of India (RGI), and that mathematical models should not be used for projecting excess mortality numbers for India. “Registration of births and deaths in India is extremely robust and is governed by decades old statutory legal framework,” it said.

The government said it had pointed out the inconsistencies in the criteria being used by WHO to classify nations into Tier I and II categories and the very basis for placing India into the second category. India had raised the fact that given the accuracy of the Mortality Data collected through an effective and robust statutory system, India doesn’t deserve to be placed in Tier II countries. WHO till date has not responded to India’s contention, the government said.

“India has consistently questioned WHO’s own admission that data in respect of seventeen Indian states was obtained from some websites and media reports and was used in their mathematical model,” the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said. This reflects a statistically unsound and scientifically questionable methodology of data collection for making excess mortality projections in case of India,” the statement added.

“Despite India’s objection to the process, methodology and outcome of this modelling exercise, WHO has released the excess mortality estimates without adequately addressing India’s concerns,” the ministry said.

But even as the centre objected to the WHO’s Covid casualty figures, another report released by the Registrar General of India (RGI) was equally alarming and damaging to the performance of the government’s health department. According to a data prepared by the RGI, 45 per cent of the total 82 lakh people who died in India in 2020 did not get any medical attention at the time of death and just 1.3 per cent of the total registered fatalities during the year received medical care from a qualified professional. The RGI’s report ‘Vital Statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System’ for 2020,’ however, did not give the number of people who died from COVID-19.

According to the Union Health Ministry data, in 2020, when COVID-19 was first reported in the country, 1.48 lakh people lost their lives due to the pandemic, which is substantially lower than 2021 when 3.32 lakh people died due to the disease. “About 1.3 per cent of the total registered deaths during 2020 have received medical attention from qualified allopathic professionals and practitioners of other system together and 45 per cent of the deceased did not receive any medical attention at the time of death,” the RGI’s report said.

The proportion of people dying in the absence of medical attention in 2019 was 34.5 per cent. As many as 28 per cent of the total registered deaths have occurred in institutions and is on a higher side than that of other places from where those who died had received medical attention. About 16.4 per cent of the registered deaths were reported under ‘medical attention other than institutions’.

The RGI report said complete information on medical attention received by the patients at the time of death has been received from 34 states and UTs. Two states — Maharashtra and Sikkim — have submitted only partial data and therefore their numbers have not been used while consolidating the data.

Referring to the infant deaths, the report said the share of registered infant deaths in rural areas is only 23.4 per cent while that of urban area is 76.6 per cent during the year. “Non-registration of infant deaths in rural area is a cause of concern which may be due to non-reporting of infant deaths to the registrars especially in case of domiciliary events,” it said.

Meanwhile, with the Covid-19 situation by and large improving the world-wide, Hong Kong on Thursday reopened beaches and pools in a relaxation of restrictions, while China’s capital Beijing began easing quarantine rules for arrivals from overseas. Hong Kong had closed water sports venues amid an outbreak of the highly transmissible omicron variant but has been tailing off restrictions as new case numbers fall. Deaths from COVID-19 have fallen from a high of almost 300 per day in March to zero in recent days.

Restaurants are also allowed to seat up to eight customers to a table and masks will not be required during outdoor exercise. A further round of easing is scheduled to begin on May 19, when bars and clubs will be allowed to reopen and restaurants in the southern Chinese city will be permitted to serve customers until midnight.

China has maintained its hard-line “zero-COVID” approach but has imposed less onerous restrictions on the capital than in other cities such as Shanghai, where millions were placed under strict lockdown. Beijing will now require arrivals from overseas to quarantine at a hotel for 10 days, followed by another week of home isolation. Previous rules required 21 days of isolation, at least 14 of them at a hotel, followed by seven days of regular health reporting.