Economy: ‘India may become 3rd largest in 2031, leave Europe behind’
Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: The World Economic League (WEL) has said India is likely to overtake all European countries to become the third-largest economy in the world in 2031.
As the Indian economy recovers after the pandemic, the country is likely to overtake all European nations in the next 10 years, the media reported, quoting a WEL ranking released this week.
According to the WEL, the world’s GDP will hit the USD 100 trillion mark in 2022. China may become the largest economy, followed by the United States and India.
In 2021, India had a per capita GDP of USD 7,314 in 2021, classifying it as a lower-middle-income country. Its economy is estimated to have grown by 8.5% in 2021, with output growing 0.6% above the 2019 levels.
Applauding economic reforms such as demonetization and the decentralization of the agricultural sector, the League said it reflected the promise of a commitment to attain sustainable economic growth.
India is also looking to enhance its global position, with the nation witnessing strong foreign and domestic investments in 2020 and 2021.
It acknowledged the Government of India addressing infrastructure bottlenecks via its National Infrastructure Plan, pushing the country’s ranking from seventh place in 2021 to the third-largest economy in 2031.
But the WEL also warned the highly contagious Omicron variant of coronavirus could threaten India’s economic recovery, despite the world’s largest vaccination drive it started in January 2021.
The report also noted the rise of China between 2000 and 2021 from a poor country to an upper-middle-income economy with a GDP per capita of USD 18,931 in 2021. “We expect the trend rate of growth for China to be 5.7% annually from 2020 to 2025, 4.7% from 2025 to 2030, and 3.8% annually from 2030 to 2035.
China’s meteoric rise is due to its ‘dual circulation’ strategy planning for both external and domestic demand. Beijing curbed western financial markets to limit the power of technology giants and to cool an overblown property market, prioritizing economic stability, it said.
The United States’ share of global GDP is expected to gradually decline in the years ahead, as China overtakes it. The US may expand by around 2% per annum from 2024 onwards, sliding to the second rank behind China.
The report also revealed the 2036 rankings for India’s neighbors: Pakistan – 37, Bangladesh – 24, and Sri Lanka – 69.
The top ten economies by 2036 would be in this order: China, the US, India, Germany, Japan, the UK, France, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia.
