Roving Periscope: Trump mounts pressure as turbulent Iran may descend into a civil war

Virendra Pandit

New Delhi: Mounting pressure on the theocratic regime of Iran, President Donald Trump said the US will impose 25 percent tariff with immediate effect on countries trading with the Islamic Republic whose violent crackdown on anti-government protestors has reportedly left more than 600 people dead since December 28, 2025 when the ongoing unrest began, the media reported on Tuesday.

Unconfirmed reports, however, put the death toll at around 2,000, injuries to several thousands, and arrest of more than 10,700 protestors as the government tried to crush unrest and even organized pro-Ayatollah demonstrations, raising fears of a civil war. Some reports said 512 of the dead were protesters and 134 security force members.

“Effective immediately, any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25 percent on any and all business being done with the United States of America,” Trump wrote on his private social media platform, Truth Social.

His remarks came as demonstrations continued across nearly 200 towns and cities in multiple Iranian provinces, including Azerbaijan province and the central city of Arak. There was no clarity about the ground reality, however. The government crackdown on communication and the Internet tried to block facts but Elon Musk’s Starlink connections provided selective reports about the happenings.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the Iranian government may be in its final days and weeks, as he renewed a call for Iranian authorities to end violence against demonstrators immediately.

“If a regime can only keep itself in power by force, then it’s effectively at the end,” Merz said on Tuesday in Bengaluru, India. “I believe we are now seeing the final days and weeks of this regime. In any case, it has no legitimacy through elections in the population. The population is now rising up against this regime.”

Merz said he hoped there is a possibility to end this conflict peacefully, adding that Germany is in close contact with the US and European governments.

At least 646 people, including some policemen, have been killed so far in Iran’s nationwide protests, according to activists, with the toll expected to rise. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said more than 10,681 people have been arrested and sent to prisons.

The protests began on December 28 over rising prices, inflation and economic hardship. They quickly spread across the country, with clashes reported between protesters and security forces in multiple cities, the media reported.

Human rights groups have raised concerns about deaths, mass arrests and the use of force. Iranian officials have blamed “rioters” and alleged ‘foreign’ involvement, while saying economic issues would be addressed.

Iran’s currency has sharply weakened, with the rial crashing to over 1.4 million against the US dollar in open market. Prices of basic goods such as meat and rice have surged, while inflation remains close to 40 percent.

As a force-multiplier, long-standing anger also resurfaced after the 2022 death of a woman, Mahsa Amini, in police custody, which had earlier sparked nationwide protests.

Some protesters voiced support for the US-based exiled “Crown Prince” Reza Pahlavi, who recently urged Iranians to sharpen their agitation.

‘Beware of the drones’

Meanwhile, US Senator Lindsey Graham has warned Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86. In a post on X, he responded to remarks by Khamenei warning US politicians against what Tehran claims are “foreign-backed” protests.

“To the Ayatollah: we don’t talk as much as we used to. Have I offended you? As to your recent warning to American politicians, I hear Moscow is a winter wonderland. Beware of the drones. Make Iran Great Again!” Graham wrote, following reports suggesting the Iranian leader may have an “escape plan” involving Russia if protests worsen.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused Trump of escalating tensions through repeated military warnings, according to an Al-Jazeera report.

Speaking to foreign diplomats in Tehran, he claimed protests had “turned violent and bloody to give an excuse” for US intervention. He said the situation was now “under total control.”

“We are ready for war, but also for dialogue,” he said.

He alleged that “terrorists” had targeted both protesters and security forces and claimed authorities had evidence of weapons being distributed to demonstrators.

Amid relentless unrest, Iran has now eased some restrictions on its people and, for the first time in recent days, allowed them to make phone calls abroad via their mobile phones. It did not, however, ease restrictions on the internet or allow texting services to be restored as the toll from days of bloody protests mounted.

Although Iranians were able to call abroad, people outside the country could not call them. SMS text messaging was still down and internet users inside Iran could not access anything abroad, although local connections to government-approved websites were restored.

Internal matter, says Israel!

The Israeli military was alert for surprise scenarios due to the ongoing protests in Iran, but has not made any changes to guidelines for civilians, as it does prior to a concrete threat.

The protests in Iran are an “internal matter,” Israeli military spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin wrote on X.

In 2025, Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program, resulting in a 12-day war that killed nearly 1,200 Iranians and almost 30 Israelis. Over the past week, Iran has threatened to attack Israel if it or the US attacks.

Trump, who claimed Tehran had even approached Washington for talks, has repeatedly threatened the Shia-majority nation with military action, if his administration found the Islamic Republic was using deadly force against anti-government protesters.

It’s a ‘redline; that he said he believed Iran is “starting to cross” and has left him and his national security team weighing “very strong options.”

China, Brazil, Turkey and Russia are among key economies doing business with Tehran.

India’s overall trade scenario is not likely to face much of an impact if it stops trading with Iran. However, it could temporarily impact some sectors such as rice, tea, fresh fruits, and essential oils.

All eyes now on the US. The White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Trump believes in maintaining flexibility.  “I think one thing President Trump is very good at is always keeping all of his options on the table, and airstrikes would be one of the many, many options that are on the table for the Commander in Chief. Diplomacy is always the first option for the president.”

Trump was closely watching signals coming from Iran, she said, noting that private communications differed from what Iranian leaders were saying publicly.

She also underlined that Iran is aware of Trump’s willingness to act if needed. “However, with that said, the President has shown he’s unafraid to use military options if and when he deems necessary, and nobody knows that better than Iran.”