Manas Dasgupta
NEW DELHI, May 4: The actor-turned-politician Vijay who has stunned everyone as his newly-formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerged as the single largest party in the 294-member Tamil Nadu Assembly may have to take support of some smaller parties to form a government in the state.
Though he has pushed his two Dravidian majors, the DMK and the AIADMK to a distant second and third positions respectively, as per the current trend, Tamil Nadu is likely to throw a hung Assembly with the TVK falling short by about 10 seats to form a ministry of his own.
However, going by the trends, one will have to wait until votes from every polling booth are counted to know whether TVK will get the 118 seats needed to form a government on its own.
Besides the 108 seats which the TVK has won or is leading, it is also running in the second position in 67 seats in ten of which it is trailing by fewer than 1,000 votes. If these swing in its favour, TVK may secure a majority. On the other hand, 13 of the 108 seats it is currently leading could swing in favour of other parties, as the margins there are also under 1,000 votes.
As a party that went to the polls without an alliance, TVK may have to depend on support from smaller parties in the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance or the AIADMK-led National Democratic Alliance to form the government.
The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) led by Dr Anbumani Ramadoss, currently leading in five seats, is likely to emerge as the party most in demand by the TVK for government formation. In 2006, when Tamil Nadu last saw a hung Assembly, the PMK offered support to the DMK without sharing power in the ministry. The difference then, however, was that the DMK and the PMK had a pre-poll alliance.
With no major ideological flashpoints between the two parties, the PMK may not find it difficult to jump ship from the NDA to support the TVK.
The Congress, leading in four constituencies, is likely to be the other party that could break away from the DMK-led alliance to support the TVK. A section of Congress leaders had been vocal about sharing power in the government, which led to tensions with the DMK in the run-up to the polls, as the latter was against any such arrangement. Some Congress leaders had even spoken of TVK as a viable ally for the national party in place of the DMK ahead of the elections. This internal demand may make it easier for the party to switch camps, especially considering that leaders such as TNCC president K. Selvaperunthagai — a vocal supporter of the DMK-led alliance — are trailing in their constituencies and likely to lose.
The Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam and the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam may also consider lending support to the TVK. However, with each party leading in only one seat, they may not be in a strong position to negotiate.
The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, the Communist Party of India, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist), each leading in two seats, are unlikely to offer support to Vijay. The presence of the PMK and the Congress, which does not get along with the Left parties in particular, makes the prospect of these three parties joining hands with the TVK remote, although Vijay himself may be open to such an alliance. Besides, these parties may not have much choice and extend support to the TVK unless they want to risk re-election if no party is in a position to form a government.
At the first state-level conference of TVK, Vijay, in his own words, dropped a “political bomb” by offering to share power with any party willing to ally with him for the elections. His offer had no takers at the time.
