Manas Dasgupta
NEW DELHI, Mar 25: Amidst the “language war” the DMK government in Tamil Nadu is waging against the Centre over alleged “imposition” of Hindi through the National Education Policy (NEP), the rival AIADMK, which has lost considerable grounds in the state after the death of its popular leader J Jayalalitha, seems to be all set to return to the NDA fold.
The AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami is in Delhi and scheduled to meet Union Home Minister Amit Shah, for a final round of discussions for the party’s re-alignment with the BJP if the saffron party agreed to bypass its current Tamil Nadu unit chief K Annamalai. This could be a historic moment for the AIADMK before the before the 2026 Assembly polls, though it is still worried about joining hands with a North-centric party that the DMK chief minister MK Stalin is trying to project as symptomatic of a dominant Centre and a “villain” for the southern states.
Sources said the meeting between the two leaders could lead to a return of Palaniswami to the NDA – an alliance that the AIADMK general secretary has been resisting, but is emerging as political compulsions for both the AIADMK and the BJP. Palaniswami’s visit was preceded by weeks of discussions between AIADMK and BJP leaders to prepare the grounds for the re-association between the two parties.
The compulsions of political survival and pressure from Delhi is learnt to have forced Mr Palaniswami to change his mind. An AIADMK leader from Tamil Nadu, seen as close to Palaniswami, said they were even “ready to play second fiddle if they (the BJP) listen to our concerns and agree to some of our conditions.”
The AIADMK had first aligned with the BJP during its low period following supremo J Jayalalitha’s demise in 2016, and the party’s split. Several decisions taken by the AIADMK government at the time were seen as influenced by the BJP.
Following the DMK’s sweep of the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, Palaniswami had pulled away from the BJP and eventually parted ways in September 2023.
However, the DMK’s emphatic performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with chief M K Stalin also scooping up bypolls and civic elections, as well as emerging as the face and voice of the anti-BJP Opposition in the South, Palaniswami’s options have been narrowing.
Among the conditions the AIADMK has laid, sources said, is the formation of a high-powered steering committee to oversee dealings with the BJP – whose authority, importantly, would outrank Mr Annamalai, giving an impression that there was nothing between the AIADMK top leadership and the BJP high command. Annamalai’s relentless simultaneous attacks both on the DMK and the AIADMK leaders are believed to have been highlighted by the party leadership as one of the reasons for breaking up from the NDA in 2023 and is also coming in the way of a re-association between the two parties.
The AIADMK also wants the BJP to drop any overtures towards party rebels T T V Dhinakaran and O Panneerselvam. The BJP had earlier been urging Mr Palaniswami to bring the rebels back into the AIADMK fold to cement party cracks.
A confidant of Palaniswami said he is clear-eyed on what the BJP wants. “They are looking for control. They won’t hesitate to split our party if we resist. This is not a choice; this is damage control.”
A senior BJP leader confirmed the conditions laid by the AIADMK, but said what was encouraging was that the party had not called for Annamalai’s removal, as the BJP had feared might happen. To get around the hierarchy issues, the BJP could put senior leaders such as H Raja and Nainar Nagendra in the steering committee.
The BJP sources said the deal was as good as done. “Amit Shahji has said categorically that we welcome the AIADMK. Now the details will be worked out at the highest level.”
The BJP has been serious about expanding its footprint in Tamil Nadu and it was seen in the last Lok Sabha polls that though it did not win any seat, it saw an impressive increase in its vote share. It needs to ride on the shoulder of a state party which could prove the difference between victory and defeat in the 2026 Assembly polls, the BJP leadership believed.
Till four months ago, Mr Palaniswami had sought to build an independent coalition, reaching out to Left parties and Thol Thirumavalavan’s Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), which are currently a part of the ruling DMK alliance. Another potential plan was to stitch together an alliance with actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).
However, these attempts never fructified, the AIADMK leader said. “The Left and VCK remain firmly with the DMK, and the TVK lacks a formal political framework for talks. Most importantly, Palaniswami is unwilling to negotiate as an equal with Vijay (who just unveiled his political plans).”
With no major allies in sight and the BJP more than keen to realign, Mr Palaniswami appears to have decided to take the plunge.
Another senior AIADMK leader, who is considered a trusted aide of Palaniswami, said: “If the AIADMK had managed to form an alternative alliance, the BJP would not even be an option. If the AIADMK-Vijay option was on the cards, DMK allies too would have joined us. But every path has been exhausted now.”
From the BJP side, there was little opposition to begin with. The party’s national leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Shah, have long believed that an alliance with the AIADMK would have significantly improved its performance in last year’s Lok Sabha elections. But, Annamalai’s role in turning the AIADMK away notwithstanding, Modi continues to value the state president for building the BJP’s presence in the state. But Delhi is already learnt to have asked Annamalai to moderate his tone for the AIADMK leaders.
Apart from political, Palaniswami has other considerations weighing on his mind. Several senior party leaders have faced the heat from Central agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate and Income Tax in the past, and many corruption cases are still technically ongoing.
At the same time, not appearing weak – particularly when compared to Stalin – will be the biggest consideration for Palaniswami. “If the alliance moves forward, it will be on the BJP’s terms – but with enough concessions to allow Palaniswami to save face,” the BJP sources said.
