Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: Fears of a dark Covid-19 winter in rural China grew exponentially this week as the Asian country descended into uncertainty.
Just four days ahead of the Lunar New Year (January 22-23), the media reported on Wednesday that China is likely to see nearly 36,000 Covid deaths a day during this holiday weekend, making it one of the most deadly periods of the pandemic since early 2020.
In an updated analysis of the largest Covid-19 outbreak so far anywhere in the world, London-based independent forecasting company Airfinity Ltd added 11,000 deaths a day to its December 29, 2022 estimate, a quantum jump showing the breathtaking pace of the outbreak and the lack of clear information about how it’s spreading in the world’s most populous nation.
The update is based on data from China’s different provinces combined with rates seen in other Zero Covid countries after they first lifted Covid curbs, the research firm, predicting health analytics and tracking the pandemic, said.
China, currently battling the Covid explosion, has already admitted to 60,000 Covid deaths in a month. Now it might experience “one longer, more severe Covid wave,” rather than repeat peaks and valleys, as the traditional festival marked by millions of Chinese returning home to reunite with their families, or visiting tourist destinations, fuels high levels of virus transmission.
“Our forecast estimates a significant burden on China’s healthcare system for the next fortnight,” said Matt Linley, Director, Analytics, at Airfinity. “It is likely that many treatable patients could die because of overcrowded hospitals and lack of care.”
The latest update takes into account reports suggesting infections have already peaked in some provinces, including Henan, Gansu, Qinghai, and Yunnan. Analytic indicators suggest the virus spread more quickly than anticipated to rural areas, partly driven by people traveling for the 40-day-long New Year celebrations.
According to Airfinity’s estimates, cumulative Covid deaths in China currently stand at 608,000 since December 2022. Officially, China reported nearly 60,000 Covid-related deaths among hospitalized patients for the first five weeks of the current outbreak.
For the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic started in January 2020, the Chinese are now traveling freely for Lunar New Year, the Asian country’s most important holiday. Travel in China is recovering but the New Year travel is not yet back to the pre-pandemic levels. Still, around 100 million trips are expected daily.
The annual ritual of a family reunion involving billions of trips was sharply curtailed during the past three years as the government ordered people to “celebrate where you are” to avoid spreading the virus.
Officials estimate the number of trips over the holiday period will hit 2.1 billion this year — double that of last year, but still just 70 percent of the level seen in 2019, the reports added.