Manas Dasgupta
NEW DELHI, Nov 12: Even though the electoral process in Bihar is over with the election commission handing over the final list of winning candidates to the governor and Nitish Kumar is preparing to take oath as the chief minister for the fourth term, the principal opponent the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led “Mahagathbandhan” (MGB) though is down but still not out.
Sources close to various parties in the MGB said the possibility of the coalition forming a government even if at a later stage could not be ruled out because the stability of the NDA government, with a wafer thin majority of only three seats, was doubtful.
The MGB is learnt to be eyeing its erstwhile two partners, the former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Mukesh Sahani-led Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). Both the parties have won four seats each, though Sahani himself lost from Simri Bakhtiarpur, that helped the NDA to gain the simple majority. Both the parties were with the MGB but switched over to the NDA just before the elections.
The MGB believe that both the HAM and the VIP would demand adequate representation in the cabinet and with the BJP emerging as the senior partner and demanding a pound for flesh, particularly after sacrificing the post of the chief minister in favour of the junior partner JD(U), it might be difficult for Nitish Kumar to play the balancing act without causing heart-burning among some partners for long.
The MGB with 110 seats can hope to get the AIMIM holding five seats on its side since Asaduddin Owaisi at no cost can go with any group that has BJP as its partner. If it can bring the HAM and VIP back on its side, the MGB could gain a simple majority if all other factors remained unchanged.
A threat, however, is lurking behind the MGB if the Congress will be able to hold its ranks together. As experienced in several other states, the recent happenings being in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, it is not difficult for the BJP to lure away some Congress members on its side to gain a substantial majority for the NDA as demonstrated by it in MP and Gujarat.
Even Tejashwi Yadav, who was elected the leader of the 110-member MGB group, hinted at the possibility of the group forming a government at some stage. Speaking for the first time after the election results were declared, the RJD leader, who the exit polls predicted would be the next chief minister, on Thursday demanded recounting of postal ballot votes. Crying foul play in the counting process, Yadav said the mandate of people was in favour of the Grand Alliance but Election Commission’s result was in NDA’s favour.
“I thank Bihar’s people. The mandate favoured Mahagathbandhan, but the Election Commission’s result was in NDA’s favour. This hasn’t happened first time. In 2015 when Mahagathbandhan was formed, votes were in our favour but the BJP made back door entry to gain power,” said Yadav.
Asked whether the MGB would try to muster numbers to form its own government, he said, “We will go to the people who gave the mandate. If they express such a wish we will act accordingly.” Quoting election data, he pointed out that the NDA got only 12,270 votes more than the MGB. Casting doubts on the electoral process, the RJD leader flagged narrow margin in 20 seats. “We lost 20 seats by a wafer-thin margin. In many constituencies, as many as 900 postal ballots were invalidated,” added Yadav.
“We got support of the people but NDA achieved poll victory through dhan, chhal and bal (money, deceit and muscle),” alleged Yadav. He also said that candidates were not told why so many postal ballots were cancelled.
“Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar could not stop this 31-year-old. They could not stop the RJD from becoming the single-largest party,” he told media persons. Hitting out at Nitish Kumar, Yadav said his JD(U) had been relegated to the third position. “If he has any conscience left, he must give up his attachment to the Chief Ministers chair,” he added.
But, he said, even if “someone else (read Nitish Kumar) sits on the chief minister’s chair, the people’s mandate was clearly in favour of the Mahagathbandhan.”
Though no date has yet been finalized, Nitish Kumar is learnt to be in the process of fixing he auspicious “Bhaiyya Dooj” day on Monday for taking oath as chief minister.
The Raj-Bhavan sources also said they have not received any communication about when the swearing-in ceremony will take place. Before he is sworn-in as the chief minister again, Nitish Kumar has to tender his resignation to the governor. He is also yet to be formally elected the leader of the entire NDA before he can stake his claim.
Meanwhile, the Chief Electoral Officer H R Srinivas submitted the list of winning candidates in the assembly elections to Governor Phagu Chauhan at the Raj-Bhavan on Thursday.
