Exit Polls Predict BJP Retaining Power in UP, Manipur, Close Fight in Uttarakhand and Goa, AAP to win Punjab
Manas Dasgupta
NEW DELHI, March 7: The Exit Polls conducted by different pollsters predict of the BJP retaining majority in the most populous state of Uttar Pradesh, though with a marginal reduction in the number of seats it is holding in the outgoing Assembly while the Aam Aadmi Party is set to upstage Congress in Punjab and form the government with a comfortable majority.
According to most of the agencies conducting exit polls this time, there will be a tight race between the Congress and BJP in Uttarakhand and Goa. In Manipur, the saffron party, along with its allies — the NPP, NPF and JD(U) — will have an edge over the Congress, showed the exit polls. In Uttarakhand and Goa, the BJP and Congress are seem to be going neck-and-neck though the ruling BJP is having marginal advantage over the Congress while in Manipur too, the BJP is likely to retain majority and form the government.
There is hardly any good news for the Congress in any of the five states that went to the polls including Punjab where it may be out of the office, unless it can overcome the BJP at least in Goa.
According to the Republic P-Marq exit poll for UP, the ruling BJP will win 240 of 403 seats – well over the halfway mark of 202, although it is significantly lower than the 312 it won in the 2017 election. Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, which initially claimed of being in line to win about 400 seats, is likely to emerge the main opposition with 140 seats. The Congress for whom Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and other senior leaders, including Rahul Gandhi, campaigned fiercely, is set to disappoint in UP again, with just four seats, down from seven it held last time. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party may end up with less than 20 seats.
Times Now-Veto also gives the BJP victory in UP with 225 seats. The Samajwadi Party is expected to get 151 seats. The Congress, once again, languishes with an expected return of nine seats. Mayawati’s BSP will get 14, and four seats have been given to other parties.
In Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP is set to spring a massive shock and form the government, taking advantage of a feud within the ruling Congress that drove out former chief minister Amarinder Singh. AAP is set to win big by each of four exit polls – India Today-Axis My India says it will win 76-90 of 117 seats in the Assembly and ABP News-CVoter says 51-61. The biggest predicted wins come from News24-Today’s Chanakya, which gives 89-111 seats to the AAP. Times Now-Veto gives 70 and Republic P Marq 62-70.
The Congress, which expected to do well under chief minister Charanjit Channi, and the Akali Dal are neck-and-neck for the tag of main opposition in the state. The BJP, which has joined hands with Amarinder Singh’s new party – Punjab Lok Congress – will be a distant third.
The BJP is also set to retain power in Uttarakhand, with India Today-Axis My India, News24-Today’s Chanakya and Times Now-Veto all giving it a win over the Congress. India Today-Axis My India gives it 36-46 seats, News24-Today’s Chanakya 43 and Times Now-Veto 37. However, ABP News-CVoter and Republic P-Marq are leaning the other way, with the former giving the Congress 32-38 seats in the 70-member Assembly and the latter 33-38. The AAP is not expected to repeat its Punjab heroics here.
In Goa, both India Today-Axis My India and Republic P-Marq predict a tight race between the ruling BJP and the Congress, with neither expected to win a majority outright. According to the former, the BJP will win 14-18 seats and the Congress 15-20. Republic says BJP and the Congress will win 13-17 seats each. Times Now-Veto gives the BJP 14 and the Congress 16. The majority mark in the 40-member assembly is 21, meaning it will likely be a hung house.
In Manipur, the Republic P-Marq exit poll gives the ruling BJP and its allies an easy win, awarding it 27-31 of the 60 seats. While this is marginally short of the majority of 31, the opposition MPSA alliance is expected to win only 11-17 seats and the NPP 6-10, giving the ruling party plenty of wriggle room to form post-poll deals.
Ahead of the assembly poll results, BJP leaders and strategists in Uttarakhand have begun internal confabulations over the possible post-poll scenarios that may emerge in the state. Party strategist Kailash Vijayvargiya arrived in Dehradun on Sunday and was huddled with former Union minister Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank at the latter’s residence to discuss how the party was likely to fare in the polls.
He also held discussions with Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami and Pradesh BJP president Madan Kaushik. An important party meeting to be attended by party poll in-charge for Uttarakhand Pralhad Joshi is also being held on Monday. –For the Congress, senior leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra arrived in Jaipur on Monday to discuss post-poll scenarios ahead of assembly election results on March 10. Gandhi, accompanied by the party leader Rajeev Shukla, reached the Jaipur airport where she was received by Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and PCC chief Govind Singh Dotasra. Party sources said she will hold discussions with the chief minister about post-poll scenario in the five states. From the airport, Gandhi left for the hotel with Gehlot and others.
As voting ends in five states, and ahead of the election results later this week, the Congress has launched unprecedented moves to prevent defections that have hurt the party in the past. Top Congress leaders have been despatched to at least four of the five states that voted over the past month – Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur.
These leaders will be in place to take swift decisions, sources said today, including on alliances and tie-ups in the event of hung assemblies. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has held strategy meetings to discuss these pre-emptive moves, which are unusual for the opposition party.
The Congress wants to avert a repeat of the 2017 fiasco in Goa, when the party failed to take power despite emerging single largest in the election. The Congress won 17 of 40 seats in Goa in the 2017 election but the BJP, after winning 13 seats, took power with help from smaller parties and independents. Two years later, 15 Congress MLAs switched to the BJP, led by the Congress’s leader of opposition, Babu Kavlekar, who was made Deputy Chief Minister by the BJP.
Weeks ago, the Congress had even made its Goa candidates take an oath of allegiance in Rahul Gandhi’s presence. The party, however, realises that this symbolic gesture may not be enough to hold back its MLAs when the race for power begins. Besides Goa, the Congress has also activated “mission MLA” in Punjab, Uttarakhand and Manipur. The Congress hopes to win in at least two of these states, though a hung verdict is seen to be a very real possibility in all four. Sources say the party is also planning to sequester MLAs in Rajasthan; the Congress-ruled state is familiar with “resort politics” that has become a staple of recent state elections or regime changes.
