Manas Dasgupta
NEW DELHI, Feb 17: The upcoming Assembly elections this year in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry, majority of them being non-BJP states or union territory, and many pollsters believe are likely to stay so, are set to have a crucial bearing on the Congress and also on the country’s politics.
Of the states going to the polls, the Congress is a junior partner to the local ruling parties of DMK in Tamil Nadu and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, in fact the TMC may not even take the Congress as an alliance partner, while it will be directly fighting the elections against the incumbent ruling parties in Kerala where the CPM-led LDF is in power, and Assam where the BJP is in power.
Most of the observers believe that while in Kerala the Congress-led UDF this time has a fair chance to dislodge the LDF government, it may virtually be fighting a losing battle in Assam where the incumbent Himanta Biswa Sarma government has become all popular, particularly because of his tirade against the Muslims branded as illegal Bangladeshi infiltrators.
It may be a pure coincidence, but the Congress team for Assam elections is to be led by the AICC general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, an MP from Wayanad in Kerala. She is the chairperson of the screening committee that will select 126 party candidates. The list of observers consists of Karnataka deputy chief minister DK Shivakumar and former Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel, both seen to be favourably inclined towards Priyanka Gandhi.
The All India Congress Committee (AICC) General Secretary in charge is Bhunwar Jitendra Singh, whose loyalty towards the Gandhi siblings is absolute. As a former Alwar maharaja, he is a wildlife enthusiast, which also brings him closer to Priyanka.
In Kerala, all key players, except for perhaps Sachin Pilot and Shashi Tharoor, are close to the former president and currently the leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi. To be sure, Sachin’s stature within the Congress is tall, which prevents him from being projected into any team or camp, but right from beginning he had been very close to Rahul. Shashi Tharoor had been focusing on his own brand of politics all this while, but of late, he has again aligned with the rest of the Kerala Congress to shore up the party’s prospects. Karnataka Minister KJ George, Rajya Sabha MP Imran Pratapgarhi and party leader Kanhaiya Kumar are other observers for the Kerala assembly polls, and all of them have close relations with Rahul Gandhi.
Team Rahul is fully and solely represented by KC Venugopal, who himself loves being Rahul’s eyes and ears. While Ramesh Chennithala is a strong contender for the Chief Minister’s post, Venugopal is hoping to upstage him with the help of Rahul in the event of the Congress-led UDF come up victorious.
As many survey agencies indicate, Congress is expected to come back to power in Kerala, while there is a big, big question mark over it being able to dislodge the Himanta Biswa Sarma-led BJP government in Assam. In any case, the party has been caught in an awkward muddle in Assam in the wake of an avalanche of ‘resignations’ and ‘revolts’ in the state unit. The former state party chief, Bhupen Borah, has threatened to resign from the party and may join the BJP in spite of Priyanka Gandhi’s efforts to retain him. Borah had been in touch with Mr Sarma even when he was heading the Assam Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC). The buzz is that he has been offered a ministerial berth by Sarma in the next government.
On the other hand, a number of Muslim MLAs and leaders who are being denied assembly ticket are also threatening to quit. Party insiders attribute this to AICC General Secretary Bhunwar Jitendra Singh’s over-reliance on party MP Rakibul Hasan, who is increasingly turning unpopular among Muslim leaders. The failure to set up a subcommittee to look into alliances is also proving costly. It seems Jitendra Singh is more focused on bagging a Rajya Sabha berth from his home state, Rajasthan, rather than committing his body and spirit to the Assam contest.
If the Congress wins in Kerala, Rahul’s close lieutenants – everyone from Venugopal and KJ George to Kanhaiya Kumar – stand to gain from it. On the other hand, if the Congress continues to sit in opposition in Dispur, it’s DK Shivakumar, Bhupesh Baghel and others who’ll be held accountable for the defeat and failure.
In the bigger picture, the Assam poll results may even impact DK Shivakumar’s bid to replace Chief Minister Siddaramaiah in Karnataka and reduce Baghel’s stature in the party when he was trying to remain the face of the party in Chhattisgarh against rival TS Singhdeo’s growing ambitions to lead from the front.
The poll outcome is also set to define a role for Priyanka Gandhi. At present, she is the AICC general secretary but doesn’t hold charge of any state or have any organisational duty. Paradoxically, the problem with Priyanka is that she has always had too much on her plate. The AICC general secretary is expected to be in firefighting mode perpetually, be a social media warrior, proactive on X, and use television news to her advantage to take on the highly skilled and resourceful BJP. There is no dearth of Congress leaders who want her to be a “star campaigner” in poll-bound states while maintaining a low profile not to outshine her brother Rahul.
