New Delhi: India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to grow over 9.5 percent in the fiscal year 2021-22, the latest research data quoted in the media reports showed on Wednesday.
The economy grew at 8.4 percent in Q2FY22, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday. The growth in the April-June quarter of this fiscal stood at 20.1 percent.
In October’s monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had kept its projection for real GDP growth at 9.5 percent in 2021-22, comprising 7.9 percent in Q2, 6.8 percent in Q3, and 6.1 percent in Q4 of 2021-22.
“We believe that the real GDP growth would now be higher than the RBI’s estimate of 9.5 percent, assuming the RBI growth numbers for Q3 and Q4 to be sacrosanct, the SBI’s research report Ecowrap said.
The real GDP growth may be close to 10 percent, it added.
The report said the GDP grew by 8.4 percent in Q2FY22 on the back of double-digit growth in mining and quarrying, public administration, defense, and other services. The real Gross Value Addition (GVA) increased by 8.5 percent, a little higher than the GDP growth.
In H1FY21, India showed a real GDP loss of Rs. 11.4 lakh crore (on a year-on-year basis) due to complete and nationwide lockdown in April-May and partial lockdown in the June-September period of 2020 because of the outbreak of Covid-19 waves, it added.
The situation has improved in FY22, and in H1FY22 the real gain was around Rs. 8.2 lakh crore.
This shows that a genuine loss of Rs 3.2 lakh crore still needs to be recouped to reach the pre-pandemic level, the report said.
The sector-wise data showed that trade, hotels, transport, communication, and services related to broadcasting are still the most affected, and the actual loss of Rs 2.6 lakh crore is still needed to be recouped in these sectors, it noted.
Overall, the economy is still operating at 95.6 percent of the pre-pandemic level (with trade, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting still at 80 percent) and should take one more quarter to recoup the losses.
In Q2 FY22, the FMCG sector reported top-line year-on-year growth of 11 percent, while EBIDTA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) and PAT grew by 4 percent each.
However, rural markets, which showed good resilience during the pandemic, have slowed in the last couple of months as suggested by some of the industry majors, according to the report.
The research report said the new investment announcements in the current year look encouraging, with around Rs 8.6 lakh crore investment announcements made so far in the last seven months of FY22.
With the private sector contributing around 67 percent of this, i.e. Rs 5.80 lakh crore, it seems private investment revival is on the horizon, it added.
(VP)
