“Third Wave will be Less Deadly, May Hit in Three Months:” Scientist
NEW DELHI, Sept 13: Amidst hundreds of complimentary and contradictory theories about a possible third wave of Coronavirus in India, a scientist at the Banaras Hindu University has brought hopes claiming that the third wave would be less deadly, especially for the vaccinated group of people, persons who have been cured of the virus and children.
A geneticist of the BHU’s Zoology department, Professor Gyaneshwer Chaubey said the people who have been vaccinated and cured of Covid-19 would fall under the protected group during the third wave.
He added that the wave would likely to hit after at least three months but the ongoing coronavirus vaccination will boost people’s immunity and help them resist the wave. “As the levels of antibodies drop every three months, the chances of the third wave are likely. In this sense, if the level of antibodies falls in the next three months, then a third wave can come.
“But the ongoing vaccination campaign will help in the fight against the virus. If our immunity is more than 70 percent, the effect of Covid-19 in that group will be less, and gradually, its frequency will start decreasing. This is what we have to see,” he said.
Chaubey said while the virus cannot be stopped, the death rate can be reduced. “From time to time, corona will peak, but it will eventually decrease. Once the levels of antibodies decrease, the chances of catching Covid-19 will increase. Even so, for those in the protected group, the death rate is very low,” he added.
In such a situation, he said, even if there are one to two deaths reported out of two to four lakh people, that would still count as a big deal. “Even if our entire population gets infected with corona and we keep the mortality rate below 0.1 or even 1 percent, then we will win this war,” he said.
Talking about children’s vaccinations, Chaubey said the Zydus Cadila vaccine was expected on the market in the next three to four months, shielding children more against Covid-19. He also noted that children have always been less affected by the virus than adults during both previous waves.
Amid reports of cases increasing in the north-east and Kerala, he said large states like Uttar Pradesh are recording only 10 to 20 daily cases, which should be seen as a good sign. “Only 40 percent of people in Kerala have developed seropositivity. Whereas in UP, 70 percent of people had developed seropositivity. After a month, cases will start coming down in Kerala, just as they have been in UP,” he said.
(Manas Dasgupta)
