Russia Admits, Ukraine has Achieved Breakthrough in Kherson

Manas Dasgupta

NEW DELHI, Oct 3: More than seven months into the war, the Ukrainian forces are believed to have achieved their by far the biggest breakthrough in the south of the country since the war began in February.

Bursting through the front and advancing rapidly along the Dnipro River on Monday, the Ukrainian forces are threatening supply lines for thousands of Russian troops, official sources said.

Though Ukraine gave no official confirmation of the gains, the Russian sources have acknowledged the successes of its rivals admitting that a Ukrainian tank offensive had advanced dozens of kilometres along the river’s west bank, recapturing a number of villages along the way.

“Ukrainian forces have made some breakthroughs in the southern Kherson region and taken control of some settlements,” a Russian official said on Monday.

“It’s tense, let’s put it that way,” Vladimir Saldo, the Russia-installed head in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson province, said on state television. Russia formally moved to annex four Ukrainian territories last week, including Kherson region, but none are fully under the control of Moscow’s forces and Ukraine continues to advance in the south. “There’s a settlement called Dudchany, right along the Dnipro River, and right there, in that region, there was a breakthrough. There are settlements that are occupied by Ukrainian forces,” he said.

The breakthrough mirrors recent Ukrainian successes in the east that have turned the tide in the war against Russia, even as Moscow has tried to raise the stakes by annexing territory, ordering mobilisation and threatening nuclear retaliation.

Dudchany is around 30 km south of where the front stood before the breakthrough, indicating one of the fastest advances of the war and by far the most rapid in the south, where Russian forces had been dug into heavily reinforced positions along a mainly static front line since the early weeks of the invasion.

While Kyiv maintained almost complete silence, as it has in the past during major offensives, some officials did describe what they referred to as unconfirmed reports of gains.

Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s interior ministry, posted a photo of Ukrainian soldiers posing with their flag draping a golden statue of an angel. He said it was the village of Mikhailivka, around 20 km beyond the previous front.

“In the last days, we have seen the first photo of Osokorivka… we have seen our troops near the entrance to Mikhailivka, we have seen our troops in Khreschenivka, next to the monument. This means that Zolota Balka also is under the control of our armed forces, and it means that our armed forces are moving powerfully along the banks of the Dnipro nearer to Beryslav,” Serhiy Khlan, a Kherson regional council member said. “Officially, there is no such information yet, but the (Russian) social media pages which are panicking… absolutely confirm these photos.”

The advance in the south mirrors the tactics that have brought Kyiv major gains since the start of September in eastern Ukraine, where its forces swiftly seized territory to gain control of Russian supply lines, cutting off larger Russian forces and forcing them to retreat.

Just hours after a concert on Moscow’s Red Square on Friday where Russian President Vladimir Putin proclaimed the provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to be Russian territory forever, Ukraine recaptured Lyman, the main Russian bastion in the north of Donetsk province.

That has opened the way for it to advance deep into Luhansk province, threatening the main supply routes to territory Moscow captured in some of the war’s bloodiest battles in June and July.

In the south, Ukraine’s advance targets supply lines for thousands of Russian troops – perhaps as many as 25,000 – on the west bank of the Dnipro. Ukraine has already destroyed the main bridges, forcing Russian forces to use makeshift crossings. A substantial advance down river could cut them off entirely.

“The fact we have broken through the front means that … the Russian army has already lost the ability to attack, and today or tomorrow it could lose the ability to defend,” some Ukrainian military analysts said. “A month of our work destroying their supplies and reducing the combat effectiveness of this group means that they are functioning on minimal rations in terms of ammunition, fuel and food.”

Putin has been responding to Russia’s failures on the battlefield over the past month by escalating: proclaiming the annexation of occupied territory, calling up tens of thousands of men as reservists and threatening nuclear retaliation.

Putin’s other big gamble, Russia’s first mass military mobilisation since World War Two, has also been mired in chaos. Tens of thousands of Russian men have been called up, while similar numbers have fled abroad. Western countries say Moscow lacks the supplies and manpower to train or equip the new conscripts. Mikhail Degtyarev, governor of the Khabarovsk region in Russia’s Far East, said on Monday around half of those called up there had been found unfit and sent home. He fired the region’s military commissar.

Meanwhile, Russian Duma, the council firmly under the control of Putin’s ruling party, passed bills endorsing the annexation of the four partly occupied Ukrainian provinces. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told the parliament that Russia has funds to support four Ukrainian regions which President Vladimir Putin began annexing last week and these funds are part of the country’s budget,

Siluanov did not say how much would be spent.

Russia declared the annexations of the regions after holding what it called “referendums” in occupied areas of Ukraine. Western governments and Kyiv said the votes breached international law and were coercive and non-representative.