Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: As the mutually destructive war between Russia and Ukraine entered the 13th day on Tuesday, Moscow used crude oil and natural gas to build pressure on the West to arm-twist Kyiv to surrender as Moscow does not want to occupy another Afghanistan, this time on its own borders.
With the US-led NATO still refusing to engage militarily against Russia but providing arms, ammunition, and funds to keep Ukraine fighting, President Vladimir Putin’s government is apprehensive of the West’s strategy: to draw Russia deep into Ukraine which, the West believes, could once again bleed the Kremlin white and put Russia on the path of the ‘second tranche’ of a possible disintegration after that of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Russia, therefore, does not want to prolong the war and avoid a military occupation of Ukraine. It wants to end the war quickly. That prompted it to push pressure on the West to arm-twist Ukraine to accept Moscow’s terms.
Soon after the February 24 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Germany had announced to halt the opening of the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline. On Tuesday, Russia warned it could stop the flow of natural gas to Germany from where Europe gets about 40 percent of its gas supplies.
With this warning, fears of energy war between Russia and the West escalated, particularly as the United States pushed its European allies to ban Russian oil imports as punishment to Moscow.
“We have every right to take a matching decision and impose an embargo on gas pumping through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, and warned that oil prices could zoom to more than double to USD 300 a barrel if the US and its allies banned imports of Russian oil, a crucial source of revenue to Moscow after the country was effectively frozen out of Western financial markets.
However, according to the media reports quoting analysts at Bank of America, if most of Russia’s oil exports were cut off there could be a shortfall of 5 million barrels per day (BPD) or more. This could push up prices as high as USD 200. On Monday, the crude prices had soared up to USD 139 BPD. Oil prices see-sawed near 14-year highs on Tuesday, with Brent crude trading around USD 125.
To drum up support against Russia, US President Joe Biden held a video conference call with the leaders of France, Germany, and Britain on Monday seeking their support to ban Russian oil imports. But, if needed, the US could move ahead without allies in Europe, the reports said.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the biggest military attack on a European country since World War II ended in 1945, has poured 2 million refugees in Central Europe, the UN said, and a raft of sanctions on Moscow, as fears of a wider conflict remain.
Japan also tightened its sanctions on Tuesday, freezing the assets of an additional 32 Russian and Belarusian officials and executives of companies with close ties to the government.
That Russia is unwilling to stay in Ukraine for long—although the West believes it would assimilate the smaller nation—is borne out because Moscow still calls its actions in Ukraine a “special operation”, not designed to occupy territory but to destroy its southern neighbor’s military capabilities and capture what it regards as ‘dangerous nationalists’.
On Tuesday, the Russian troops encircled Kyiv from two sides, preparing for the likely final assault on the Ukrainian capital. Moscow has deployed over 150,000 soldiers in and around Ukraine.