Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: It’s how a great power play is unfolding in our century.
More than 900 days after the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine started on February 24, 2022, some indications suggest that the two war-fatigued neighbors may be looking for an honorable exit route to smoke the peace pipe.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s last week’s visit to Ukraine, via Poland, is one such indication. Although much has been kept under wraps, this visit may have been the outcome of a lot of back-channel diplomacy.
For, it came after PM Modi’s Russia visit in July where he reminded President Vladimir Putin of India’s consistent stand that “this is not the era of peace”, and that “conflicts can be resolved with diplomacy and dialogue.”
As the year 2025 approaches, each stakeholder has a reason to ensure that the two warring countries, despite their current phase of fierce attacks on one another, agree at least for a ceasefire, leading to a long-term cessation of hostilities.
US President Joe Biden hopes to end his only tenure in the White House in January 2024 with the feather in the cap that he managed to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, something that might ensure the victory of his Democratic successor Kamala Harris in the November 2024 election.
Also, Americans are increasingly resenting their tax money being funneled to fund the war in Ukraine, given that Russia has destroyed most of the American war material Ukraine has used so far in what seems to be an endless conflict without any returns.
Biden’s Russian counterpart, Putin, has long been speculated to be looking for an honorable exit route. The two harsh winters, 2022 and 2023, proved that the Ukrainians are not going to surrender their arms. Also, in June 2023, the Moscow-promoted Wagner militia’s rebellion against the Putin establishment itself proved how unsafe it is to take even stool pigeons for granted.
Moreover, Russian youths are increasingly going against their compulsory drafting in the army to fight an unnecessary war in an era where patriotism, unlike its 19th-century narrative, is no longer the cement that bound nationalists forever. Russian attempts to lure youths from, say India, to fight their war in Ukraine has only antagonized ‘friendly’ countries.
Even democratic countries—the US after the Vietnam War, and India after the 1971 and 1999 wars, for example—have shown that, despite victories in a war, the ruling party may not exactly come out with flying colors for a long time.
A medieval mindset for territorial war is no longer an option in the 21st century of globalization. Because of the Western sanctions on technology transfer, Russia knows, it is gradually falling back in the upgradation of its war machines. Its impact would become visible in the next few years and it is likely to leave space for China to directly confront America.
Putin may not like to leave Russia to play second fiddle to China.
That’s where PM Modi’s low-flame peace initiative kicks in. In the next few weeks, if he succeeds in bringing Presidents Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the negotiating table, it would be his spectacular achievement at the global level.
Even America is not against this idea. Its prime competitor in the post-Soviet era has, in any case, been China. Beijing has somewhat recovered the ground it lost in the post-COVID years of 2020-23, and is flexing muscles, again, not only against Taiwan and the Philippines, but also Japan, a key member of the Quadrilateral Dialogue (Quad) which Washington plans to evolve as an ‘Asian NATO.’
Additionally, the US is wary of fighting on too many war fronts. For, not only is Turkey, a NATO member, making all the wrong noises, it is threatening to align with Iran which Russia is already helping in the Middle East. Even Saudi Arabia is trying to cool down Iran, lest the Hamas conflagration engulf it.
That is why, America has renewed attempts to put an end to Israel’s war in Palestine, and is rethinking its policy in Ukraine, particularly as Republican nominee Donald Trump’s policy that matches PM Modi’s!
Against this backdrop, the Biden-Modi conversation took place on Monday, suggesting that not only Moscow but Washington was also in the loop for the fresh initiative undertaken by New Delhi.
For, a day after Biden called up, Modi also spoke with Putin. “Spoke with President Putin today. Discussed measures to further strengthen Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership. Exchanged perspectives on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and my insights from the recent visit to Ukraine. Reiterated India’s firm commitment to support an early, abiding and peaceful resolution of the conflict,” the Indian PM tweeted on X on Tuesday.
Biden commended PM Modi for his “message of peace” and “humanitarian support” for Ukraine, as they discussed his historic visit to Kyiv and the prospects for the early return of peace through dialogue and diplomacy, the media reported on Tuesday.
Their conversation, initiated by the US president, came three days after PM Modi paid a high-profile visit to Kyiv during which he told President Zelenskyy that Ukraine and Russia should sit together to end the war and that India was ready to play an “active role” to restore peace.
In a post on ‘X’, Joe Biden said, “I spoke with Prime Minister Modi to discuss his recent trip to Poland and Ukraine, and commended him for his message of peace and ongoing humanitarian support for Ukraine.” “We also affirmed our commitment to working together to contribute to peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific,” Biden said, hinting that Washington’s real emerging target is Beijing, not Moscow.
This was the first call between the two leaders after PM Modi’s trip to Russia, Poland, and Ukraine and the recent political developments in Bangladesh.
The White House readout of the call had no reference to Bangladesh, which was mentioned in an ‘X’ post by PM Modi.
Modi’s nearly nine-hour visit to Ukraine, the first by an Indian PM since its independence from the then-USSR in 1991, came six weeks after he held summit talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin that briefly triggered anguish in some Western capitals.
The White House, in a readout of the call, said the two leaders discussed PM Modi’s recent trip to Poland and Ukraine, as well as the United Nations General Assembly meetings in September.
Based on the UN Charter, Biden and PM Modi affirmed their continued support for a peaceful resolution of the conflict under international law.
“The leaders also emphasized their continued commitment to work together, including through regional groups like the Quad, to contribute to peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific,” the White House said.
Meanwhile. commenting on Biden’s fresh talks with Modi, White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said, “I think it’s safe to say they certainly talked about Ukraine and the Prime Minister’s trip to Kyiv and the prospects for moving forward under President Zelenskyy’s plan for a just peace.
“We welcome any other country that wants to help President Zelenskyy work towards this just peace,” he said.
“And any country that’s willing to come at that discussion by starting with President Zelenskyy’s perspective, by hearing him out, by signing on to that proposal – and I won’t speak for India and what they’re signing on to or not; that’s for the Prime Minister and his team to talk to,” he said.
Earlier, in a post on X, PM Modi said that during the call with Biden, they had a detailed exchange of views on various regional and global issues, including the situation in Ukraine.
“I reiterated India’s full support for early return of peace and stability,” the PM said.
He also said that he and Biden discussed the ongoing situation in Bangladesh and stressed the need for the early restoration of normalcy and ensuring the safety and security of minorities, especially Hindus.