Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: With the ‘elimination’ of Hamas chiefs Ismael Hanieh and Yahya Sinwar recently, and now Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, if Israel’s claims are true, the two of the fiercest terrorist organizations in the Middle East may eclipse soon. The third—Houthi—is still making life hell for global supply chains and international business by attacking sea lanes around Israel—and it may become the next target.
The situation is so volatile that even Iran, despite its bravado, felt it necessary to shift its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to a secure location inside the country with heightened security measures in place, the media reported on Saturday.
The almost year-long war in the Gaza Strip has cost more than 43,000 lives. The recent Israeli bombing of Lebanon has also killed over 700 people and displaced around 118,000.
While the Sunni terror outfit, Gaza-based Hamas, has been a Palestinian organization chiefly against Israel, another Sunni outfit, Yemen-based Houthi, is anti-Saudi Arabia. The Lebanon-based Hezbollah is a pro-Iran Shia militia. They were all getting weapons and funds from their sponsors to fight their respective enemies in the highly complicated geopolitical objectives in this volatile region.
While all three joined hands against Israel when Hamas invaded it in October 2023, Houthi continued its war against the Saudis as well. Beyond political rhetoric for home consumption, however, hardly any of the 57 Muslim members (including 48 Islamic countries) of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has directly joined the three H-War (Hamas-Hezbollah-Houthi) against Israel. Even Iran has left Hezbollah to fend for itself.
Terrorism in the Middle East has been more of an instrument of realpolitik state policy, primarily to keep in check home-grown pro-Islamic unity militants, rather than fighting against an ideological enemy.
Israel is aware of this Islamic dilemma, and the disunity within the Jeddah-based OIC, which eases its war and existence in the Middle East almost on a decadal basis. So, don’t be surprised if, and when, it eliminates Houthis with silent support from the Saudis.
Remember, none of the Muslim countries anywhere in the world—particularly those sharing borders with the Jewish State in the Middle East—has directly engaged in confrontation against Israel. Not even Iran.
So, their existential wars will continue in the future.
The ongoing Israel-Hamas war is marked, chiefly, by Iran’s dilemma. While it threatened Israel time and again and released political rhetoric ad infinitum, it lost both of its proxies—Hamas and Hezbollah—with no tangible returns.
If anything, Nasrallah’s ‘death’, if true, may force Iran’s exit from the muddy waters of the Middle East, given its rising domestic democratic sentiments. For the first time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Tehran is facing not only an anti-clerical movement led by women but even its new President, Masoud Pezeshkian, is being viewed as titling towards the West. Perhaps the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would not like a civil war and face the fate of the last monarch, Muhammed Reza Pahlavi.
That’s why Iran’s reaction to the Nasrallah ‘death’ on Friday night was rather muted. It had raised Nasrallah, who became politically active at age 15, as a leader in the last 32 years and almost ‘takeover’ Lebanon. Nobody knows if and when the outfit’s next leader, if it still manages to survive and stay relevant, will emerge.
“Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorize the world,” the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said in a statement.
The Hezbollah chief, the de facto ruler who lorded it over Lebanon without holding any public office, was Iran’s most powerful proxy in the otherwise Sunni ocean in the Middle East
“During Hassan Nasrallah’s 32-year reign as the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, he was responsible for the murder of many Israeli civilians and soldiers, and the planning and execution of thousands of terrorist activities,” an Israeli statement read.
“He was responsible for directing and executing terrorist attacks around the world in which civilians of various nationalities were murdered. Nasrallah was the central decision-maker and the strategic leader of the organization.”
Even if Hezbollah survives, finding a new leader would be a challenge, given Israel speedily decimating the outfit’s entire leadership structure. The loss of Nasrallah and several of his commanders would damage the group’s morale for a long time and serve as a potent symbol of Israel’s military dominance.
The potential ramifications extend beyond morale; they may also affect Hezbollah’s military capabilities.
Any new leader must be acceptable to both Hezbollah’s internal factions and its Iranian backers. Currently, Hashem Safieddine is viewed as the likely heir to Nasrallah. Safieddine, who oversaw Hezbollah’s political affairs and is a member of the group’s Jihad Council, is also Nasrallah’s cousin and shares a clerical background. The US State Department designated him a terrorist in 2017.
Nasrallah had been grooming Safieddine for leadership through various positions within the organization. His familial ties, physical resemblance to Nasrallah, and religious status would all contribute to his potential leadership.
If he survives the ongoing Israeli offensive.