Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: Twelve days after the Polar Bear invaded Ukraine, the West may follow the Game Theory of mathematics and economics in geopolitics: the way it sacrificed Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany in 1938, it may dump Ukraine to Russia with similar objectives—to give Moscow a long rope enough to hang itself with as costs of war escalate, minimize own risks, secure its strength and, eventually, do a Germany to Russia.
In the late 1930s, Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Germany vanquished almost all of Europe, including its largest nation, France. America and Britain directly joined World War II (WWII) only after Japan attacked Pearl Harbour and Germany bombed London.
Until then, all European countries pleaded with Britain and the US for help, the way Ukraine is doing now. All those countries that did not share a border with imperialist Germany got little help until the War actually reached complacent London and Washington to wake them up.
A similar situation may emerge during the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. The West is, as of now, divided; and Europe, which shares borders with Russia, is unwilling to fall into the US-UK ‘trap’ as they two do not share borders with Russia!
That the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), formed after WWII for keeping Europe safe from Moscow, has developed cold feet, and differences, faced with Russia’s nuclear threats, is history. On Monday, Poland, now flooded with over a million Ukrainian refugees, almost rejected US overtures that Warsaw should send fighter aircraft to Kyiv. No country is ready to pull Ukraine’s chestnuts out of Russian fire.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington had given a “green light” to Poland to supply Kyiv with Soviet-era fighter planes and receive American F-16s to make up for their loss. But this is fraught with uncertainty and Poland is not much enthusiastic. Russia has warned that supporting Ukraine’s air force would be seen in Moscow as participating in the conflict and open up suppliers to retaliation, the media reported on Monday.
So Warsaw, although a NATO member, is unwilling to invite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s wrath and become the next sacrificial goat.
The ‘violent stalemate’, faced with the balance of terror, therefore, continues as Russia escalates the war despite Ukraine’s fierce resistance.
With the preponderance of the Russian nuclear stockpiles, no country, in either the West or the East (including China), will risk the displeasure of Russia.
They are, in fact, bracing for the denouement: Ukraine’s assimilation by Russia.
Only a miracle, like the West opening a second front, as it did in Normandy in France in the 1940s, or a Russian mistake, like stepping into the Afghan marshes in the 1980s, can turn the tables.
Until now, Putin has insisted that his “special operation” in Ukraine will stop only when his key demands are met. These are (1) the West must stop the expansion of NATO to the former Soviet republics, including Ukraine; (2) NATO must withdraw its forces from the eastern front to the 1997 position; (3) Ukraine’s guarantee that it will not enter NATO; and (4) demilitarization of Ukraine.
That Moscow is pushing the war ahead emerged on Monday when it sought to create “humanitarian corridors” from Ukraine to Belarus and Russia. For the moment, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected the “offer”. He called the move “completely immoral” and said Russia was trying to “use people’s suffering to create a television picture”.
Russia had announced a ceasefire in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Sumy from 12.30 pm IST on Monday. But this has also fallen through now.
Moscow may have thought it could use the corridor to funnel refugees into Belarus or Russia, and also have ground access to these Ukrainian cities. Already, Russia largely controls the Ukrainian skies and ports.