Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: As this week’s political firestorm cools down in Bangladesh, and the interim government, headed by Nobel Peace Laureate Muhammad Yunus, 84, braces to meet the critical challenges ahead, it now emerges that a sudden economic downturn in an otherwise well-doing South Asian nation quickly spiraled into an unprecedented political crisis that toppled the Hasina regime this week.
Even the new government will have to address this key issue at the earliest: 32 million young people are out of work or education in a population of 170 million.
A day after taking oath as the Chief Advisor to the Interim Government, Prof. Yunus said on Friday that improving law and order in Bangladesh is the top priority for the newly appointed caretaker government as the strife-torn nation limps to normalcy after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster on Monday.
In a significant development, the media, quoting Hasina’s son Sajeeb Wajed Joy, reported that the former PM, currently living in India, will return to Bangladesh when the caretaker government decides on holding elections. But it was not clear if the 76-year-old daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, founding father of Bangladesh, would contest again.
The US-based Joy said, “She will go back to Bangladesh the moment the interim government decides to hold an election.”m“My mother would have retired anyway from politics after the current term,” he said.
The media reported on Friday, quoting Brigadier-General (Rtd) M. Sakhawat Hossain, that the government is making efforts to bring back the confidence within the law enforcement agencies, which “I feel has gone very drastically low.”
Anarchy, vandalism, looting, and attacks against minorities and their places of worship gripped the country in the last few days, TV visuals have shown.
Hossain said the administration was “very concerned” about reports of vandalism and attacks on minorities, adding that some were “slightly exaggerated.”
Most police stations across Bangladesh remained deserted in recent days as police officers faced public outrage because of their crackdown on protesters in Hasina’s last days in power. Weapons and ammunition were also stolen from the stations, local media reported.
Some plainclothes police constables returned to duty in Dhaka on Friday, with paramilitary forces guarding some of the police stations.
The student-led movement in Bangladesh started with protests against quotas in government jobs before spiraling into violent protests to oust Hasina, led by the banned Islamist outfit, Jamaat-i-Islami. About 300 people died while thousands were injured during the weeks-long agitation.
“It is crucial to immediately bring public order and protect vulnerable communities, including Hindu minorities, who have come under attack,” said Meenakshi Ganguly, the Asia Deputy Director for Human Rights Watch.
Meanwhile, the economic woes that fueled the violent agitation are emerging.
Under the Hasina regime, Bangladesh has in the last couple of years witnessed a sharp widening of its current account deficit, depreciation of the taka currency, and a decline in its foreign exchange reserves.
Readymade garments have long been a mainstay of Bangladesh’s economy, which is the third-largest exporter of clothing in the world.
Although low wages helped the country build this industry, but soaring living costs sparked protests by garment workers calling for higher salaries.
In particular, the Bangladesh economy slowed down sharply since the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war of 2022 pushed up prices of fuel and food imports, forcing the country to approach the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2023 for a USD 4.7 billion bailout.
In July 2024, protests against job quotas in public sector jobs intensified amid stagnant job growth in the private sector as nearly 32 million young people are out of work or education in a population of 170 million.
Bangladesh Bank, the country’s central bank, held rates at 8.5 percent in July, after raising them twice earlier this year. Inflation stood at 9.72 percent in June as the central bank aimed to bring it to 6.5 percent by fiscal 2025.
The South Asian country’s GDP rose to 6.1 percent in the January-March quarter, according to data released in July.
The IMF concluded a second review in June, giving the country immediate access to about USD 928 million in loans for economic support and about USD 220 million to combat climate change.
In a report, the IMF said it expects Bangladesh’s economic growth to be at 5.4 percent in the fiscal year 2024, higher than the 4.8 percent recorded in the first half.