Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: With the US-led sanctions taking effect, and a likely ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine ahead of Christmas next month, India may halt its purchases of Russian crude during the month President Vladimir Putin visits New Delhi.
Ahead of his December 5 New Delhi visit for a bilateral event, India has just signed up for importing 10 percent of its LPG needs from the USA for 2026.
India’s Russian oil imports are set to hit their lowest in at least three years in December, down from multi-month highs in November, as refiners turned to alternatives to avoid breaching Western sanctions, the media reported on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a 28-point peace formula has been floated in the West—ostensibly by both American and Russian officials—that is loaded heavily against Ukraine, which, amid Europe’s support and anti-Russian stance, is trying to reject it, even after US pressure.
In the rapidly evolving geopolitical scenario, and diplomats attempting to sort out polycrises on multiple fronts, Britain, the European Union and the US have tightened sanctions on Russia over the ongoing war in Ukraine, with Washington’s latest measures targeting top Russian crude producers Rosneft and Lukoil.
Buyers of Russian oil had until November 21 to wind down dealings with the two firms.
Separately, the EU has set a January 21 deadline after which it will decline fuel from refineries that handled Russian crude within 60 days of the bill of lading.
Bank scrutiny following the latest US sanctions has made Indian state refiners “extremely cautious.” India is likely to get 600,000 to 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in December.
These include imports by Indian Oil Corp, Nayara Energy and delivery of some November-loading cargoes for Reliance Industries.
In November, India is expected to receive 1.87 million bpd of Russian crude, provisional data from Kpler showed. In October it imported 1.65 million bpd of Russian oil, up 2 percent from September, data from trade sources shows.
“Russian supply is expected to be high in November as many refineries tried to fill the stocks prior to the US sanctions deadline and also due to the rule for oil products production for EU market from non-Russian oil from 2026,” the report said
Most Indian refiners, such as Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, have stopped buying Russian oil.
State-run Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum Corp said they will buy only from the non-sanctioned entities.
Nayara Energy, partly owned by Rosneft, is exclusively processing Russian oil after other suppliers pulled back following British and EU sanctions.
Reliance Industries Ltd said it loaded Russian oil cargoes “pre-committed” as of October 22, and will process any parcel arriving after November 20 at its refinery that is geared to produce fuels for the local market.
Reliance, the operator of the world’s biggest refining complex, has two refineries with one catering exclusively to export markets.
The share of US oil in India’s oil imports in October surged to its highest since June 2024 as refiners tapped an arbitrage window.
India is also under pressure to buy more U.S. energy after Washington doubled tariffs on Indian imports to 50 percent, citing New Delhi’s buying of Russian oil.