Karnataka Elections: Will Rahul Gandhi’s Campaigning Benefit or Spoil Congress Prospects?

Manas Dasgupta

NEW DELHI, Apr 8: Even as the Rahul Gandhi’s launch of the election campaign in Karnataka was postponed for the second time on Saturday, the state leadership is apprehensive if the former Congress president’s visit would bolster the party’s prospects or would work to the advantage of the BJP in case he launched a frontal attack on the prime minister Narendra Modi.

Gandhi, who was originally scheduled to begin his campaign in Karnataka from Kolar on April 5, was postponed again for the second time as now the candidates would be busy filling the nominations and it would be too early for him to go on Sunday. Now, Gandhi will visit Kolar on April 16, sources said.

Kolar is the same district where Gandhi made the “Modi surname” comment in April 2019, just before the national election, which eventually led to his conviction in a criminal defamation case filed by a BJP leader in Gujarat, Modi’s home state, and subsequent disqualification as a Member of Parliament.

In addition to the bitter relations between the two top leaders of the party in the state and the heat generated from the disappointment over denial of ticket to some of the aspirants, the Congress also feel that Gandhi’s narrative of Modi as corrupt prime minister could boomerang for the party. The fact that the BJP has not been able to give a stable government with one Chief Minister for a full term adds to the Congress’s narrative.

The Karnataka Congress leaders believe that the present Assembly elections should be fought only on the local issues as the BJP’s Basavraj Bommai government is facing major anti-incumbency factor. Congress’s campaign managers seem clear that an overarching Rahul Gandhi versus Modi narrative may negate potent local issues like the “40% Sarkar” allegation against the state government, which the Congress feels will work firmly in its favour. Taking on Prime Minister Modi only allows him to emerge as the face of the BJP’s campaign, turning it into a national election rather than a local one, which several Congress leaders feel could be a disadvantage to the opposition party.

But poll narratives can shift till the last minute. As Rahul Gandhi gets set to start his ‘Satyameva Jayate’ campaign from Kolar – the same district where he made the controversial “why do all thieves have Modi as their surname” comment in 2019 for which he was recently convicted – will he keep the emphasis firmly local?

On the national stage, Rahul Gandhi’s campaign is focused on targeting the Prime Minster on issues of corruption, lately on the Adani-Hindenburg allegations. But local Congress leaders fear that such a campaign in Karnataka could play to the BJP’s advantage and shift the focus from state-level issues to those that may be electorally futile.

These fears are backed by historic electoral realities when attacks on Narendra Modi have turned counter-productive for the Congress. Even way back in 2007, during the Gujarat election campaign, Sonia Gandhi’s “Maut ka Saudagar” comment was believed to have backfired spectacularly in the western state.

There are those in the party as well as observers who feel that a campaign focused on Narendra Modi – like the “Chowkidar Chor Hai” campaign in 2014 – only plays to the BJP’s strengths, allowing the ruling party to do exactly what it wants – building a narrative around the Prime Minister, overshadowing substantial issues.

“The question is not whether this is right or wrong, it is whether it is electorally prudent or not,” says a veteran Karnataka state Congress leader. “Modi and the BJP take on the Nehru-Gandhi family because it gives them electoral results, not because they think it’s the right thing to do. We must choose not to focus on him for the same reasons,” he adds. The BJP would be waiting for Gandhi to launch a frontal attack on Modi in the Karnataka elections so that it could turn the campaign into Modi vs Rahul taking the attention away from the failure of the BJP government in the state.

The two top Congress leaders DK Shivakumar and his party colleague Siddaramaiah are the two key faces of the party in Karnataka. There has been speculation about unease between the two on the question of who would be the chief minister if Congress comes to power, though both have denied any rift.

The Congress has already announced its second list of candidates. The BJP is meeting in Delhi to finalise its candidates; the BJP is understood to have shortlisted three names from each constituency in Karnataka, party sources said.

The Congress faced protests from some of its supporters and ticket hopefuls after they did not find their names in the second list of candidates. “I will speak to everyone and try to resolve things. There will be anger (among those who have not got tickets), I won’t deny it, they have worked for the party. There are many aspirants. We will resolve everything,” Shivakumar told reporters. Karnataka has 224 assembly seats. Voting is on May 10; counting on May 13.