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Iran: Lull before the next storm after “thousands of deaths”

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Virendra Pandit

 

New Delhi: Iran may have brutally crushed a popular urban uprising against the theocratic regime—leading to deaths whose number varies from 3,117 to over 16,000—the Ayatollah Syed Ali Khameini-led government is not sure when the next round of rebellion would resume—with or without US support.

According to the Iranian state TV, the death toll from recent protests was 3,117. But other unconfirmed reports claimed it was over 16,000 and cited the long queues of bodies covered in white sheets across several cities and morgues. Some reports said Iran even used Iraq’s Shia terrorist gangs to quell the mobs. Over 26,500 were arrested during the uprising, and many of them were reportedly killed by snipers and others.

State television carried statements by the Interior Ministry and the Martyrs Foundation, an official body providing services to families of those killed in wars, stating the toll and saying 2,427 of the dead in the demonstrations that began December 28, 2025, were civilians and security forces.

Both the US and Iran have been issuing open threats against each other’s leaders.

Iranian state TV on Wednesday issued the first official death toll from recent protests, saying 3,117 people were killed, while the Foreign Minister issued the most direct threat yet against the United States after Tehran’s bloody crackdown, warning the Islamic Republic will be “firing back with everything we have if we come under renewed attack.”

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said the death toll was at least 4,560. The agency has been accurate throughout the years on demonstrations and unrest in Iran, relying on a network of activists inside the country that confirms all reported fatalities.

The comments by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who saw his invitation to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos rescinded over the killings, came as a US aircraft carrier group moved west toward the Middle East from Asia. US fighter jets and other equipment appeared to be moving in the Middle East after a major US military deployment in the Caribbean saw troops seize Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, the media reported on Thursday.

Araghchi’s threat, in an opinion article published by The Wall Street Journal, contended that “the violent phase of the unrest lasted less than 72 hours” and sought again to blame armed demonstrators for the violence. Videos that made it out of Iran despite an internet shutdown appear to show security forces repeatedly using live fire to target apparently unarmed protesters, something unaddressed by Araghchi. Some reports claimed the government forces even used chemical weapons to attack the violent mobs and caused their ‘slow deaths.’

The USS Abraham Lincoln, which had been in the South China Sea in recent days, had passed through the Strait of Malacca, a key waterway connecting the sea and Indian Ocean, by Tuesday, ship-tracking data showed. The aircraft carrier and three accompanying destroyers were heading towards the Middle East, indicating how the US-led West is preparing for a long haul in the volatile region.

The death toll exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest in Iran in decades, and recalls the chaos surrounding the 1979 revolution that brought the Islamic Republic into being. Although there have been no protests for days, there are fears the toll could increase significantly as information gradually emerges from a country still under a government-imposed shutdown of the internet since January 8.

The first indication from authorities of the extent of casualties came Saturday from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said the protests had left “several thousand” people dead and blamed the United States. The protests began over economic pressures on December 28, 2025, but quickly broadened to take on the theocracy.

The Interior Ministry statement on Wednesday asserted that “terrorists used live ammunition that led to the deaths of 2,427 people and security forces.”