Fresh Political Showdown over Deletion of Posts by Psephologist, Congress Sticks to its Guns

Manas Dasgupta

NEW DELHI, Aug 19: Even as the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi continued his tirade against the Election Commission of India (ECI) over alleged “vote chori” to help the ruling BJP, political analyst and psephologist Sanjay Kumar’s public apology for misreading voter data in the Maharashtra Assembly elections has triggered a massive political showdown.

Just two days after he flagged significant voter additions and deletions in the Maharashtra Assembly election, Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) on Tuesday apologised and deleted the posts for “misreading” the voter’s data.

Mr Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, on the third day of his “Vote Adhikar Yatra” in Bihar continued his attack on the ECI accusing the poll body of having a “partnership” with the BJP. Mr Gandhi, while addressing a public meeting at Bhagat Singh Chowk in Nawada, said, “A partnership is ongoing between BJP and the Election Commission. They are stealing votes together. The Constitution has given the right to vote, which is being snatched by Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and the Election Commissioner.”

Mr Sanjay Kumar, co-director of the Lokniti–CSDS project, had posted figures showing sharp fluctuations in the number of voters across four Maharashtra constituencies, two showing steep drops, two showing dramatic spikes, between the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. The posts, published on X, quickly began circulating online. Several users flagged the magnitude of the changes as statistical red flags, suggesting either massive deletions or unexplained additions to the voter rolls.

Before Kumar’s retraction, the data appeared to have been picked up by Congress leaders to support allegations of voter fraud. BJP spokesperson Shehzad Poonawalla posted screenshots of now-deleted tweets, including one by Pawan Khera, claiming the figures had been used to accuse the Election Commission of allowing nearly 40 per cent of voters to “disappear” in some constituencies while others saw unnatural spikes. The graphic cited Lokniti–CSDS as the source. Shortly after the data went viral, Kumar deleted both posts and issued a clarification stating that the data had been incorrectly compared due to a misreading of rows in the dataset.

“I sincerely apologize for the tweets posted regarding Maharashtra elections. Error occurred while comparing data of 2024 LS and 2024 AS. The data in row was misread by our data team. The tweet has since been removed. I had no intention of dispersing any form of misinformation,” he said in a post on X.

The psephologist had claimed that the number of voters in the Nashik West and Hingna Assembly segments rose by 47 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, between the Lok Sabha election last and the Maharashtra polls earlier this year. He also claimed that the number of voters sharply fell in Ramtek and Devlali seats by 38 per cent and 36 per cent, respectively.

Kumar in the original posts had shared two separate tweets under the title “Some information of Maharashtra election.” Together, they included data from four constituencies. In Ramtek, he claimed the number of voters had dropped from 4.66 lakh in the Lok Sabha polls to 2.86 lakh in the Assembly election, a decline of 38.45 per cent. Devlali showed a similar pattern, with voters allegedly falling from 4.56 lakh to 2.88 lakh, a drop of 36.82 per cent.

In contrast, Nashik West appeared to have seen a surge of 47.38 per cent, with voters increasing from 3.28 lakh in the national election to 4.83 lakh in the state polls. Hingna also seemed to reflect an unusual rise, jumping from 3.14 lakh to 4.50 lakh, an increase of 43.08 per cent. But later, he deleted both tweets and issued an apology for the “error.”

The claims provided fresh ammo to Congress in its ‘vote fraud’ offensive against the BJP and were shared by its top leaders in an attempt to corner the ruling party. With Sanjay Kumar now deleting his posts and apologising, the BJP has launched its counterstrike.

Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut alleged that former Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar played a decisive role in helping the BJP secure victories, pointing to the decision recognising the Eknath Shinde faction as the real Shiv Sena and awarding it the party’s symbol.

“The 2024 Lok Sabha and Maharashtra Assembly elections were won by BJP and their allies with significant help from this gentleman (Rajiv Kumar)! By giving the Shiv Sena party and symbol to the traitor faction, he encouraged defections!” Raut said in his post on X. He also shared Kumar’s image in his post.

The Election Commission has firmly rejected all these allegations. Current Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar has dismissed the Opposition’s claims as hearsay and political distraction. He pointed out that despite the seriousness of the accusations, the Congress did not file any formal complaints or petitions for eight months after the Assembly polls, undercutting its case further. The EC has consistently denied any wrongdoing, rejecting both the “match-fixing” charge in Maharashtra and earlier allegations of manipulated voter rolls.

The deletion has given the BJP fresh ammunition and what appears to be a chance to launch another counterattack on Rahul Gandhi and the Opposition bloc, who are alleging “vote theft” and have mounted sustained pressure on the Election Commission. The EC, for its part, has spiritedly denied all allegations, calling the claims unsubstantiated and politically motivated. The BJP has accused the research body of putting out unverified data to feed the Congress’s “fake narrative.” The main Opposition has responded that it used CSDS data, but also corroborated its findings based on evidence collected separately.

The BJP was quick to capitalise on the retraction. Amit Malviya, who heads the party’s IT cell, accused Sanjay Kumar of feeding Congress’s “fake narrative” rather than conducting objective analysis. “The apology is in, and Sanjay Kumar is out,” he wrote on X, before questioning Kumar’s record as an analyst. He also referred to him as a “protégé of Yogendra Yadav” and said his repeated projections of BJP losses amounted to confirmation bias, not serious scholarship. According to Malviya, the episode is further evidence that the Opposition and its allies in academia are pushing selective scepticism under the guise of neutral analysis.

Attacking Rahul Gandhi, he said the institution Leader of the Opposition, Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi relied on to make his allegations has now admitted that its figures were wrong. “Where does this leave Rahul Gandhi and the Congress, which brazenly targeted the Election Commission and went so far as to brand genuine voters as fake? Shameful,” Mr Malviya said, demanding an apology from the Congress leader.

Sanjay Kumar’s apology comes amid the Opposition’s offensive against the Election Commission, accusing it of colluding with the ruling BJP to give the latter a poll advantage. Presenting the Mahadevapura Assembly constituency in Karnataka as a case study, Mr Gandhi has alleged ‘vote theft’ in polls. The Congress leader said the Opposition sensed a problem during the Maharashtra election and then started a probe. The INDIA bloc, which won 30 out of 48 Maharashtra seats in the Lok Sabha polls last year, could not even cross the 50 mark in the state polls just five months later. The Election Commission has trashed these allegations and asked Mr Gandhi to submit an affidavit, reiterating these remarks, or apologise.

Despite Mr Sanjay Kumar’s apology, the Congress is sticking to its guns. Party spokesperson Sujata Paul said the CSDS was just one of the sources the Congress sourced its data from. “As far as we are concerned, we might have taken up this data, but we have also corroborated it with evidence that we have got from our sources, our workers, and the entire opposition that was fighting the elections together in Maharashtra,” she said. “The CSDS data was just used as additional evidence. And why he (Sanjay Kumar) apologised, that is his problem, not ours,” she added.

Undaunted by the developments, Rahul Gandhi told the Bihar voters that the BJP, along with the ECI, had stolen votes in Maharashtra, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh. He alleged that in Maharashtra, between the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, the ECI created about 1 crore new voters.

“When we asked who these 1 crore new voters were, the ECI didn’t have any answers. When we demanded videography, they changed the law. Now in Bihar, under the guise Special Intensive Revision (SIR) the BJP and the Election Commission are stealing votes. We will not let them get away with vote theft, “Mr Gandhi said while accompanied by other leaders of the INDIA bloc.

Explaining the impact of alleged vote-theft, Mr Gandhi pointed out that first, voter cards will be taken away, then ration cards and lands will be given to Adani and Ambani. “This country does not belong to a few industrialists. This country belongs to the youth, farmers, and small traders, but over here everything is done for them. So, we must come together to change these conditions,” Mr Gandhi said.

Before addressing the gathering, Mr Gandhi asked one local farmer, Subodh Kumar to tell his story. He told Mr Gandhi that his name had been removed from the draft rolls, though he had voted in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. He also said he was a polling agent in the Lok Sabha elections. Over his story, Mr Gandhi reacted saying that there were many such voters whose name was there in the voter list and now removed.

Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and former Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav too alleged that ECI along with BJP engaged in snatching the voting rights. “They are taking away the rights to vote, many names have been removed, and people who are alive have been declared dead. The people of Bihar will teach a lesson to this Khatra Sarkar (junk government) ruling the State for 20 years. My uncle Nitish Kumar ji is in an unconscious state and he is not able to control Bihar,” Mr Yadav said.