Exit Polls: Advantage for BJP in Rajasthan, for Congress in Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Close in MP, Mizoram

Manas Dasgupta

NEW DELHI, Nov 30: The early exit polls have by and large predicted a close contest between the BJP and the Congress in both Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and an edge for the Congress in Chhattisgarh and Telangana while the Mizo National Front (MNF) is expected to retain power in Mizoram.

While the pollsters predict an advantage for the BJP in Rajasthan, in contrast the Congress may be marginally ahead in MP though finally it may result in a hung assembly. Only in Chhattisgarh almost all the exit polls predict the Congress to be all set to retain power and most of the pollsters have also predicted the Congress in line to throw out the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi from power in Telangana.

After months of fierce campaigning from all parties, polling in all five states was spread over the past month, beginning on November 7. The Congress party is seeking to retain power in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh while for the BJP Madhya Pradesh is at stake. In the last 2018 elections, Congress had managed to win the elections in MP but a revolt led by Jyotiraditya Scindia in 2020, brought the BJP back into power.

Telangana faces a triangular contest with Congress and BJP looking to prevent BRS chief K Chandrashekhar Rao’s hat-trick. But the exit polls predict that both the BJP and the AIMIM may fall way behind the BRS and the Congress for race to power in the state. In Mizoram, the usual Mizo National Front (MNF)-Congress fight has a new challenger — Zoram’s People Movement (ZPM).

These five state elections are crucial for both the BJP and the Congress, as both parties are desperately seeking wins to build momentum ahead of the Parliamentary elections next year. The five states together send 83 members to the Lok Sabha.

In 119-seat Telangana assembly, the Exit polls have predicted a close fight between the ruling BRS and the Congress with India TV-CNX predicting 31-47 seats for BRS and 63-79 seats for the Congress; BJP is predicted to win 2-4 seats while AIMIM has been given 5-7 seats. Jan Ki Baat has predicted 40-55 seats for BRS and 48-64 seats for Congress; BJP is predicted to win 7-13 seats and AIMIM 4-7. Republic TV has predicted 46-56 seats for BRS, 58-68 seats for Congress, 4-9 seats for BJP and 5-7 seats for AIMIM. TV9 Bharatvarsh Polstart has predicted 48-58 seats for BRS, 49-59 seats for Congress, 5-10 seats for BJP and 6-8 seats for AIMIM.

The Exit polls have predicted an edge for the BJP in Congress-ruled 199-seats Rajasthan with the Jan Ki Baat stating the BJP to win 100-122 seats and the Congress 62-85 seats. TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat has predicted 100-110 seats for BJP and 90-100 seats for the Congress. Times Now-ETG has predicted 108-128 seats for BJP and 56-72 seats for the Congress while Bhaskar has given 98-105 seats to the BJP and 85-95 seats to the Congress. India Today has predicted 80-100 seats for BJP and 86-106 seats for Congress.

In 90-member assembly in Chhattisgarh, the Exit polls have predicted an edge for the Congress with India Today predicting 36-46 seats for the BJP and 40-50 seats for the Congress. ABP News C-Voter has given 36-48 seats to the BJP and 41-53 seats for the Congress. India TV has predicted 30-40 seats for the BJP and 46-56 seats for the Congress. Jan Ki Baat has given 34-45 seats to the BJP and 42-53 seats to the Congress. Dainik Bhaskar has predicted 35-45 seats to the BJP and 46-55 seats to the Congress.

The Exit polls have predicted a tight contest in 230-seat Madhya Pradesh with the Jan Ki Baat stating the BJP to win 100-123 seats and the Congress 102-125 seats. TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat has predicted 106-116 seats for BJP and 111-121 seats for the Congress. Republic TV-Matrize has predited 118-130 seats for BJP and 97-107 seats for the Congress. Dainik Bhaskar has given 95-115 seats to the BJP and 105-120 seats to the Congress.

Five states went to polls in November. While polling in Telangana held on Thursday, it was held earlier in the month in Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Results of the elections will be declared on December 3.

For Mizoram, two exit polls feel a hung house could be in the cards. In Mizoram, only two of five exit polls predict that the BJP and its ally, the Mizo National Front, might scrape through.

The chances of hung house in the north-eastern state run high, with a multi-cornered contest that included the rising regional party Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) which projected a young face for the state’s top job. Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party which also joined the race, could also bleed votes for the MNF, which won 26 of the 40 seats in the last election.

For the Congress, the real sweet spot in this election could be Telangana, next-door to Karnataka where it won a huge victory earlier this year, beating the BJP hollow. The party had launched a high-octane campaign in Telangana since, under the upbeat leadership of its young state chief Revanth Reddy.