Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: India is emerging as the largest driver of global oil demand growth until 2030, dislodging top importer China, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
India, currently the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, is on track to post an oil demand increase of almost 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), accounting for over one-third of the projected 3.2 million bpd global gains, the IEA said in a report released at the ongoing India Energy Week 2024 in Goa on Wednesday.
The agency forecast India’s demand would reach 6.6 million bpd in 2030, up from 5.5 million bpd in 2023.
“India will become the largest source of global oil demand growth between now and 2030, while growth in developed economies and China initially slows and then subsequently goes into reverse in our outlook,” it added.
To meet this demand, India is expected to add 1 million bpd of new refining capacity over the seven years and this will increase its crude imports further to 5.8 million bpd by 2030, the IEA said.
Among products, diesel will be India’s single-largest source of oil demand growth on the back of massive industrial expansion, accounting for almost half of the rise in the nation’s demand and over one-sixth of total global oil demand growth through to 2030, the IEA said.
Jet fuel is poised to grow at 5.9 percent annually on average but this will be from a low base compared with other countries, it added.
The electrification of India’s vehicle fleet will lead to a more muted 0.7 percent annual growth average for gasoline. New electric vehicles and energy efficiency improvements in India will avoid 480,000 bpd of extra oil demand from now to 2030, it added.