Chirag Paswan Fires Warning Shot to NDA Allies, Eyeing for a Big Slice of Bihar Seats

Manas Dasgupta

NEW DELHI, Sept 16: Bargaining hard for a bigger slice in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) of the 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly, the union minister and the chief of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) Chirag Paswan made contradictory comments on his relations with the incumbent chief minister Nitish Kumar while firing a warning shot reminding the other allies in the coalition about his “ability to influence voters” in the poll-bound state.

With the Bihar elections expected in a couple of months, Mr Paswan, who had earlier made his intention clear to jump into the Bihar fray this time, Mr Paswan cautioned his allies in the NDA that the dynamics within the alliance have changed significantly since the 2020 elections.

In the 2020 election the LJP (then still undivided following the death of his father, Ram Vilas) contested on its own and could win just seat out of the 137 on which it set up its candidate. But in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, when he participated as part of the NDA alliance, Chirag Paswan’s LJP faction won all five seats it contested, though in the vote share terms that was just about a one percentage point jump.

Mr Paswan, considered to be close to the Prime Minster Narendra Modi, however, took pains to point out that like in the 2020 elections, the LJP (Ram Vilas) was still not formally a member of the ruling alliance in Bihar, which is fronted by the Janata Dal (United). “I’m not part of the NDA government in Bihar. I am just supporting the government. I am part of the NDA only at the centre,” he emphasised. And, in a comment that will be seen as putting his current allies on alert, he also pointed out, “If I am uncomfortable or I am too ambitious… I always have the option of walking out of the alliance.”

Right Now, he insisted, he was very much with the NDA and would like to figure in the Bihar elections, expected in November, as an alliance partner. Mr Paswan has signalled to the BJP ‘yeh dil maange more’. Sources said he wanted a share of at least 40 seats this time, but publicly only said, “I want a decent number of seats… I have a number in mind and I want quality seats.” “But I would not like to disclose those in a public forum. That would be unethical for a coalition partner,” he said, pointing out the BJP-led NDA has not formally started seat-share talks.

Simultaneously, he also sounded a warning. The Union Minister and LJP (Ram Vilas) boss reminded his ‘allies’ of his ability to influence votes – ‘I’m like salt on vegetables… I can affect 20,000 to 25,000 votes in every constituency’ – and his own political ambitions. The LJP is backed by the Paswan community that accounts for six per cent of Bihar’s voters.

The BJP – while it will not be dictated to unless necessary (as after last year’s federal election, when it had to accept support from the JDU and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP) – has offered Chirag Paswan 25 seats. It is, however, aware he can hurt its re-election bid, and defeat in Bihar not only robs it of a heartland state but also give the opposition INDIA bloc a massive boost.

Mr Chirag Paswan’s sudden Bihar tilt is, therefore, seen as presenting the BJP with a bit of a problem. If no deal is reached the BJP might lose Paswan votes but, if too many concessions are made, other allies, including the JDU, with whom Mr Paswan has a tenuous relationship, will likely be offended.

Mr Paswan at the same time has also dismissed any speculation of discord within the NDA over seat-sharing and asserted that the alliance would win more than 225 of the 243 seats up for grabs even while indicating his intentions of putting his hat in the poll ring. He also denied any rift with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, against whom he has previously taken veiled jabs, but struck a reconciliatory tone. “Nitish Kumar is not the weak link of the NDA but a strong link,” Paswan said.

Equally, he would not be drawn on rumours he is bidding to replace JDU patriarch Nitish Kumar as Bihar’s next Chief Minister. “My supporters want to see me as Chief Minister,” he acknowledged, “But this is very normal… for supporters to dream big for their leaders. I don’t see anything wrong in that.”

Mr Paswan has been alternatively critical of and friendly towards Nitish Kumar, pivoting from attacking the JD(U) leader on the law and order situation to endorsing him as the chief ministerial face of the NDA. “I am critical of Nitish Kumar’s government on the law-and-order front,” he said but insisted, “That is how it should be. This is my way of giving feedback to my own government.”

The repeated jabs at the JDU have not gone unnoticed; in August sources said the BJP’s central leadership had spoken, quietly, to Mr Paswan about playing nice with Nitish Kumar. The jabs seem to have also opened rifts in the ruling alliance; ex-Chief Minister Jitan Manjhi, for example, took a dig of his own last week, reminding Mr Paswan of the LJP’s poor performance in 2020.

On that topic Mr Paswan was diplomatic. “Jitan Ram Manjhi is a respected leader. His stature is much higher than mine (but) he has something against me. I don’t completely understand.” The comment, he said, was simply the HAMS leader “trying to position himself” before the election.

Even while he claimed that there was “no tussle in the NDA regarding seat sharing” this time apparently ignoring recent public remarks by allies like Jitan Ram Manjhi demanding a hefty share of 100 seats. “In view of the elections, statements will be made, positions will be taken. But ultimately, winnability must be the top priority,” Paswan emphasised, making it clear that electoral success, not just arithmetic, should guide the alliance’s strategy.

When asked whether he would personally contest the Bihar Assembly elections, Chirag revealed that discussions are ongoing. “The matter is still in the pipeline. I definitely want to contest,” he said – a move that could recalibrate the LJP’s influence in Bihar.

While Paswan was careful not to pitch himself openly for the Chief Minister’s chair, he didn’t entirely rule it out either. “There is no vacancy for the post of Chief Minister today,” he said, adding that any public ambition risks being misconstrued as an attempt to create division within the NDA.

Paswan, often viewed as a wildcard in Bihar politics, reiterated his commitment to the NDA and Mr Modi. “For me, the alliance is a priority. My dedication is for the Prime Minister,” he said, brushing aside questions about internal ambitions.

When questioned about the opposition INDIA bloc’s recent Bihar rally led by Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav, Chirag said the RJD leader should have been declared the chief ministerial candidate. “Rahul Gandhi did not declare my younger brother Tejashwi as the Chief Minister candidate. Tejashwi will definitely be hurt by this,” he said, hinting at disarray within the INDIA bloc.

He further added, “Tejashwi has set out on a tour again today. I do not understand what it means. Everything is not fine in the grand alliance.” Reviving a familiar refrain from previous NDA campaigns, Paswan warned that if the RJD were to return to power, “Crime and corruption will wreak havoc,” referring to what he called the resurgence of ‘jungle raj” in Bihar. He also flagged “infiltration” as a key issue, alleging that infiltrators attempt to influence elections in the state. Assembly elections in Bihar are expected in November this year.