NEW DELHI, Oct 31: “Above normal” maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of India during November except parts of northwest India and central India and above normal ‘minimum temperatures’ were also likely in most parts of the country during the month under the strong El Nino effect, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General, M. Mohapatra said on Tuesday.
The northeast monsoon, which replaced the southwest monsoon in October, and brings vital rain to several parts of southern India, has been the “sixth lowest” since 1901 so far, he said.
In September, the agency had forecast ‘normal’ rainfall for Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala but October rainfall saw a 60% rainfall deficiency in these regions. The reason, Dr Mohapatra said, was due to the prevailing El Nino and, paradoxically, a positive India Ocean Dipole (IOD). A positive IOD usually brings good rainfall. “Historically, an El Nino year and positive IOD individually means normal rainfall over southern India in October. This year, however their combined effect seems to have reduced rainfall,” he noted. While October rainfall in the region in 2016 was the lowest ever recorded since 1901 (5 cm), 2023’s has been the lowest since 1988.
Rainfall in November in these regions is likely to be ‘normal’, though this can mean anything from a 23% deficiency to 23% excess rain, given the inherent variability in November rainfall, he added.
The El Nino conditions are expected to get stronger and will continue to do so until March 2024. While current forecasts indicate it would weaken in time for next year’s monsoon, it would be “premature” to assume so, he added.
(Manas Dasgupta)
